格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but the effect may take a long time to appear. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.11%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [3] 3.2 Important Information - Open Market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan [3] - Funding Market: On Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.42% (1.47% the previous day) [3] - Cash Bond Market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.77 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year fell 0.04 BP to 1.49%, the 10 - year rose 0.26 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year rose 0.30 BP to 1.85% [3] - International Trade: On July 3, the US government allowed General Electric Aerospace to resume supplying jet engines to Comac. The US also lifted export restrictions on Chinese companies by chip design software developers and ethane producers this week. The US President signed 12 trade letters and plans to send them on Monday. Talks with the EU on trade are progressing, and major news may be announced in the next two days [3] - Domestic Policy: Since July 5, 2025, anti - dumping duties have been imposed on imported brandy from the EU. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market and called on local governments to implement policies according to local conditions [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but it may take a long time for the effects to show. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [4] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band - trading operations [4]