燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：欧洲储库推进、美国高温天气持续，各地气价平稳-20250707

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The gas prices remain stable across various regions due to the advancement of European storage and persistent high temperatures in the U.S. [4][9] - The supply-demand dynamics indicate a slight increase in total supply and demand in the U.S. market, with a notable rise in natural gas consumption for power generation [13][14] - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the gradual recovery of demand in the domestic market [46] Price Tracking - As of July 4, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas prices are as follows: U.S. HH -0.3%, European TTF +1.2%, East Asia JKM -0.3%, China LNG ex-factory -0.1%, and China LNG CIF -0.1% [9][10] - The domestic LNG ex-factory price is 4412 RMB/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [10] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the U.S., the average total supply of natural gas increased by 0.2% week-on-week to 112.5 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand rose by 6.3% to 104.7 billion cubic feet per day [13] - European natural gas consumption for the first quarter of 2025 was 160 billion cubic meters, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [14] Pricing Mechanism Progress - Nationwide, 64% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 RMB/cubic meter [33] Important Events - The U.S. LNG import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of U.S. gas imports [41][42] - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding natural gas storage targets, allowing a deviation of 10 percentage points from the 90% storage goal [45] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting key companies such as New Hope Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [46][47] - Attention is also drawn to companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and New Hope Holdings [47]