美国非农打压降息预期，有色存在回调风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payroll data has dampened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and there is a risk of correction in the non - ferrous metals market, especially for copper, zinc, nickel, and stainless steel [1][9][87][205]. - For copper, due to factors such as improved non - farm data, eased overseas squeeze - out risks, and high prices suppressing downstream demand, copper prices face downward pressure [9]. - For zinc, the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged, and it can be considered as a short - position variety in the non - ferrous metals sector [87]. - For nickel and stainless steel, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Factors include changes in macro - policies, raw material prices, and inventory levels [205][206]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - Price Data: Provided the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and multiple metal varieties. For example, the US dollar index was at 97.0, with a daily decline of 0.13%, a weekly decline of 0.28%, and an annual decline of 10.59% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - Influencing Factors: - Macro: Negative factors include strong US non - farm data, Trump's signing of the "Great Beauty" bill, and tariff threats [9]. - Raw Material: Positive factors are a slight increase in copper concentrate spot processing fees and an increase in domestic copper ore port inventories [9]. - Smelting: Slightly bearish, with smelters using spot copper ore having continuous losses, and those using long - term contracts seeing reduced profits [9]. - Demand: Negative, as the arrival of the off - season and high copper prices have led to a significant decline in domestic copper product operating rates [9]. - Inventory: Negative, with global copper visible inventories increasing and the LME spot premium compressing [9]. - Investment View: Bearish, with copper prices at risk of correction [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term correction risk for unilateral trading; long copper and short zinc for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - Influencing Factors: - Macro: Neutral, including factors such as Trump signing a budget bill, strong US non - farm data, and China's plan to regulate the photovoltaic industry [87]. - Raw Material: Neutral, with domestic processing fees unchanged, import processing fees slightly increased, and short - term supply remaining relatively loose [87]. - Smelting: Bearish, as July sees a combination of maintenance, resumption, and new production, with monthly output expected to increase [87]. - Demand: Neutral, with the off - season and tariff uncertainties affecting demand [87]. - Inventory: Neutral, with social inventories continuously increasing [87]. - Investment View: Bearish, suitable as a short - position variety in the non - ferrous metals sector [87]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for unilateral trading; long copper and short zinc for arbitrage [87]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - Influencing Factors: - Macro: Neutral, with the US non - farm data affecting interest - rate cut expectations, and Trump's tariff policies and domestic "anti - involution" policies causing market sentiment to fluctuate [205][206]. - Raw Material: Neutral, with a slight decrease in the premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore, an increase in smelter inventories, and a seasonal increase in Philippine shipments [205]. - Smelting: Slightly bearish, with high - level pure nickel production, weakening demand, and supply pressure on ferronickel [205]. - Demand: Bearish, with stainless steel in the off - season, weak spot transactions, and uncertain new - energy demand [205]. - Inventory: Neutral, with inventory levels remaining stable [205]. - Investment View: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with attention to factors such as policy changes and cost fluctuations [205]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell on rallies for unilateral trading; wait for arbitrage [205][206].