Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement, so it is recommended to stay cautious [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are recommended based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market trends, such as going long, shorting, or staying on the sidelines. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds from the open market [5]. - Analysis and Suggestion: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.46%, 0.62%, - 0.01%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. The gold main contract closed at 777.06 with a decline of 0.54%, and the silver main contract closed at 8,919 with a decline of 0.28% [11]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [14]. - Analysis and Suggestion: There is a risk of further decline in rebar prices, and the trend of hot - rolled coil may be similar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [14]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder at ports were reported [16]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low, while managing positions carefully [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [19]. - Analysis and Suggestion: There is uncertainty in the short - term trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [19]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The spot prices of manganese silicon in Tianjin and silicon iron in Inner Mongolia changed [21]. - Analysis and Suggestion: In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have an oversupply situation, and prices are under pressure. If the spot losses increase significantly, it is advisable to consider low - value call options [22]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward and broke below the 5 - day moving average [23]. - Analysis and Suggestion: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production significantly, which is expected to impact oil prices. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [24][25]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and resumed its downward trend. The spot spreads and trading conditions of high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil were reported [26]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the cost of crude oil is declining. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose slightly. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable [27]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber declined. The Shanghai spot price decreased [29]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the market stabilizes [30]. PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract declined slightly, and the spot price remained stable [31]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The PVC price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [34]. Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract rose slightly. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [35]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - term trend is bullish [36]. PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main PX2509 contract declined. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [37]. - Analysis and Suggestion: In the short term, the supply - demand balance of PX is slightly improved but remains tight. Due to insufficient cost support, it is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the Middle East situation [38]. PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate in East China were reported [39]. - Analysis and Suggestion: In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals of PTA have few contradictions, but the cost support of crude oil is insufficient. It is advisable to participate with a light position and control risks [39]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract declined slightly. The overall and partial开工 loads, inventory, and demand situations were reported [40]. - Analysis and Suggestion: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has weakened, but the significant reduction in inventory provides support. It is advisable to be cautious about the downside space and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main short - fiber 2508 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost - benefit situations were reported [42]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Both the downstream terminal demand and cost factors have weakened. It is advisable to participate with a light position following the cost trend and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [42]. Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main bottle chips 2509 contract declined. The cost - benefit, supply, and demand situations were reported [43]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Although the raw material prices have weakened recently, the increase in device maintenance and inventory reduction provide support. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [43]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production, inventory, and device maintenance situations were reported [44]. - Analysis and Suggestion: In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to alleviate. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively [44]. Glass - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production line, supply - demand, and market price situations were reported [45]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively. Short - sellers at low levels should control their positions [47]. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined slightly. The production, inventory, and demand situations were reported [48]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and the regional differences are obvious. Although there is short - term bullish sentiment, the fundamental support is limited, and the sustainability is expected to be general [49]. Pulp - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp declined. The downstream product production, supply - demand, and price situations were reported [50]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved. It is expected that the price of the pulp market will remain weak and stagnant in the near future, and it is advisable to wait and see the changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand [51]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract declined. The market sentiment improved, but the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged [52]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is not advisable for investors to chase the rise [52]. Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper declined significantly and broke below the 5 - day moving average. The spot price and market trading situation were reported [53]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Shanghai copper is facing the test of the 80,000 - yuan integer mark. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for the main Shanghai copper contract for the time being [53][54]. Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [55]. - Analysis and Suggestion: It is expected that the tin price will oscillate and strengthen [55]. Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [56]. - Analysis and Suggestion: It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The spot prices and inventory situations were reported [58]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Consider paying attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, consider paying attention to call option opportunities at support intervals after the price decline [59]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil closed lower. The international and domestic supply - demand, inventory, and price situations were reported [60][61]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Consider paying attention to opportunities to widen the difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed remained flat. The domestic import, inventory, and spot price situations were reported [63]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Consider paying attention to opportunities to go long on the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [64]. Cotton - Market Performance: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated strongly at a high level. The US cotton export, planting, and growth situations were reported [65]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Stay on the sidelines [69]. Sugar - Market Performance: Domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose and then fell. The international and domestic production, inventory, and supply - demand situations were reported [70]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Stay on the sidelines [72]. Apples - Market Performance: Domestic apple futures rose and then fell. The production, inventory, and price situations were reported [73]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to third - party production research data [75]. Pigs - Market Performance: The national average price of pigs declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [76]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The short - term pig price may continue to be weak. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the weight - reduction degree in the south [77]. Eggs - Market Performance: The average prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The supply, cost, and profit situations were reported [78]. - Analysis and Suggestion: Consider short - selling on rebounds [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - Market Performance: The main contracts of corn and corn starch declined. The spot prices, inventory, and demand situations were reported [81]. - Analysis and Suggestion: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines. Corn starch follows the corn market trend [82]. Logs - Market Performance: The main 2509 contract of logs remained unchanged. The supply, cost, demand, and price situations were reported [83]. - Analysis and Suggestion: It is expected that the market will oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [85].
西南期货早间评论-20250707
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-07-07 08:32