贵金属行业2025年度中期投资策略：黄金VS生息资产：历史三次对抗的再思考

Core Insights - The current gold bull market has lasted for 33 months, with increasing divergence in market views regarding its cycle position and potential [3][18] - The report provides a new perspective on the confrontation between gold and interest-bearing assets, suggesting that gold still has room to rise despite fears of high prices [3][10] - The second half of the year may see a higher probability of recession, which could further boost the gold bull market through cyclical safe-haven investments and de-dollarization trends [3][10] Half-Year Review: Three Phases of Change - As of June 30, 2025, gold prices increased by 26% to $3,302 per ounce, with a peak of $3,500 per ounce, divided into three phases: January-March saw a COMEX squeeze, April experienced a V-shaped reversal due to tariff escalations, and May-June saw geopolitical easing leading to price stabilization [8][21] - Notable differences this year include a shift in U.S. economic expectations, a significant increase in the negative correlation between gold prices and the U.S. dollar/stock market, and the sensitivity of gold stocks to price changes due to historically low valuations [8][29] Gold's Perspective: Store of Value vs. Interest-Bearing Assets - Gold's opposition is not only to the U.S. dollar but also to interest-bearing assets, with historical data showing that gold and interest-bearing assets have cyclical rotations rather than a one-sided advantage [9][37] - The report highlights that the annual compound returns of gold and the S&P 500 are nearly equal at approximately 7.2%, indicating that stable long-term returns are challenging to achieve [9][40] Historical Price Anchoring: Extreme Pricing Scenarios - The report explores potential extreme pricing scenarios for gold, suggesting that in a recessionary environment, gold could reach $4,196 per ounce, while in a stagflation scenario, it could reach $10,093 per ounce [10][60] - The analysis indicates that the current gold price could be 1.25 times higher in a recession scenario, reflecting a shift in investment from risk assets to gold as a safe haven [10][61] Semi-Annual Outlook: Focus on Recession Pathways and Gold Stock Elasticity - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding different historical pathways to gauge gold's current cycle position, with a focus on preparing for potential recession scenarios [10][59] - Gold stocks are expected to show greater elasticity due to their extreme undervaluation and potential performance recovery as market conditions evolve [10][35]