集运指数欧线周报（EC）：现货运价震荡，关注新一轮关税-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the container shipping industry is neutral, suggesting short - term observation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot freight rate of the container shipping index is fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the new round of tariffs. Multiple factors such as shipping company operations, political - economic situations, supply and demand of shipping capacity, and market sentiment all have an impact on the market [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Spot Freight Rate: The situation varies among different alliances and time periods. In early July, the overall price range is 2900 - 3600, with a central price of 3200. In late July, prices in some alliances have increased. The overall impact on the freight rate is neutral [3] - Political and Economic Factors: Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%, starting on August 1st. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates before September has dropped from 98% to about 80%. OPEC + will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. There are also trade frictions between China and the EU. The overall impact on the market is neutral [3] - Shipping Capacity Supply: At the beginning of July, new ships were delivered, and the shipping capacity of some routes returned to the European line, with a weekly capacity of 314,000 TEU, a 12% increase compared to June. Port strikes in Europe have led to about a 15% loss of effective shipping capacity. There is congestion at ports in Asia. The overall impact on the market is neutral [3] - Demand: There was continuous over - booking in early July, but the subsequent peak - season inventory demand in Europe is expected to be weaker than expected, and the cargo volume support is insufficient. The overall impact on the market is neutral [3] - Market: This week, affected by Maersk's flat - opening in the third week of July being higher than market expectations, the market fluctuated upward. The main contract has recovered from a deep discount state, but the upward trend is expected to be limited [3] - Investment and Trading Strategies: The investment view is short - term observation. The trading strategy is to hold a long position in the 12 - 4 spread arbitrage while remaining on the sidelines for single - side trading [3] 3.2 Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price drops in the off - season [5] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - Order Volume: There are order volume data divided by different loading capacities over the years, including the proportion of the order book to the fleet for different types of container ships [16][17] - New Orders: New order volume data are presented for different loading capacities of container ships from 2022 - 2025 [18][19] - Delivery Volume: Delivery volume data for different loading capacities of container ships from 2020 - 2025 are shown, as well as demolition volume data [24][25] - Future Delivery: Future delivery volume data are provided, including data by quarter and by loading capacity from 2023 - 2029 [30][32] - Ship - breaking Price: Ship - breaking price data for different loading capacities and the new - building price index and second - hand ship price index of container ships are presented [37][43] - Existing Shipping Capacity: Data on the existing shipping capacity of container ships, including the proportion of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofit ratios, average age, and ship - breaking average age, are provided [52][58] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - Shipping Schedule: The total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports is shown, including the capacity deployment of different alliances such as PA + MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [66][67] - Desulfurization Tower Installation: Data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average installation age and duration, and average speed are presented [77][83] - Idle Shipping Capacity: Data on idle shipping capacity, including the amount, proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are provided [88][89]