Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin market is in narrow - range consolidation. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remain stable. The polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and the overall spot price performance is average. The disk price fluctuates more following the cost and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support weakens. Polyolefin is gradually digesting selling pressure through sideways consolidation. Attention should be paid to the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly based on crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season. The effectiveness of supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance should be focused on [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Fluctuations: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7243, 7221, and 7282 respectively, with changes of - 19, - 27, and - 2 compared to the day before, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.26%, - 0.37%, and - 0.03%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7042, 7032, and 7078 respectively, with changes of 1, - 9, and 4 and percentage changes of 0.01%, - 0.13%, and 0.06%. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 44517, 180, and 301296 respectively, and the open interests were 106805, 1584, and 448681 respectively, with changes of - 5366, 54, and 4549. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 28869, 598, and 210061 respectively, and the open interests were 107738, 3668, and 414623 respectively, with changes of - 330, 481, and 4430. - Spreads: The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) were 22, - 61, and 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 14, - 36, and 22. For PP, the current spreads were 10, - 46, and 36 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, - 33, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 558 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2415 yuan/ton, 6610 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. - Mid - stream Spot: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Market News - The strong US employment market supports the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors are waiting for clarification on President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on multiple countries. It is expected that OPEC and its production - cut allies will further increase crude oil production in August, and international oil prices continue to decline cautiously. On July 4, 2025 (US Independence Day), there was no settlement price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but electronic trading was normal. The last trading price of the August 2025 futures electronic disk was 66.50 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.75% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading range of 66.04 - 67.18 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 68.30 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 67.75 - 68.89 dollars [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250707
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-07-07 08:54