Report Summary 1. Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2% [3]. - The predicted monthly price range for polypropylene is 6800 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.56% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.2% [3]. - The predicted monthly price range for plastic is 6800 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.24% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about methanol price drops, shorting methanol futures (MA2509, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 2250 - 2350) can lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Buying put options (MA2509P2250, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 15 - 20) can prevent significant price drops, and selling call options (MA2509C2350, 45 - 60) can reduce capital costs [3]. Procurement Management - For low - level procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buying methanol futures (MA2509, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2200 - 2350) can lock in procurement costs [3]. - Selling put options (MA2509P2300, 75% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 25) can earn premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3. Core Contradictions - Inland methanol performs better than port methanol due to recent inland plant maintenance, external purchases by inland CTO plants, and purchases of inland methanol by port MTO plants [4]. - After the anti - involution meeting in the second half of the week, the commodity and financial markets rose, leading to premium transactions in plant auctions [4]. - After the end of the short - squeeze in late June at the port, the external supply is gradually recovering, and the basis is continuously weakening [4]. - Currently, the inventory is low, the port inventory is accumulating slowly, and Iran has suffered actual production losses, but there are significant differences in July shipments and no conclusion on Iran's inventory [4]. - As of the weekend, Iran's plants are gradually recovering, with 3 ships shipped at a decent pace [4]. - In late July, Chengzhi's large plant plans to shut down for 1 - 2 months, and Zhongyuan Ethylene shut down on June 27 for 1 - 2 months [4]. - The forecasted inventory in Taicang in July is around 230,000 tons, and the current high basis in Taicang may lead to a correction later [4]. 4. Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at the port is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, which may lead to an increase in port methanol inventory [5].
甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250707
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-07 09:04