海外市场周报：OBBBA过会与美股新高之后-20250707

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US indices rising: Dow Jones +2.3%, S&P 500 +1.7%, and Nasdaq +1.6%[2] - European indices had varied results, with the UK FTSE 100 and France's CAC40 rising, while Germany's DAX index slightly declined[2] Economic Indicators - US manufacturing remains weak, with June PMI at 49, indicating contraction for four consecutive months[2] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June was 50.8, slightly above expectations, indicating slow expansion in the service sector[2] Legislative Developments - The OBBBA Act passed with a vote of 218:214, raising concerns about a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the deficit from 2026 to 2035[2] - The act aims to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent while tightening social welfare eligibility and eliminating certain subsidies[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data reduced the likelihood of a July interest rate cut from 23.8% to 6.7%[2] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from three to two for the year, with inflation data becoming increasingly critical[2] Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day, which could impact oil prices and inflation[2] - Oil price fluctuations are expected to play a significant role in shaping inflation trends and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations[2] Investment Strategy - With US stocks reaching new highs, potential risks include tariff negotiations and oil price volatility, which could lead to significant market corrections[2] - Continued upward movement in US stocks requires favorable outcomes from trade negotiations and declining oil prices[2] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[2]