Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, supported by raw materials and the reduced operation rate of secondary lead, the lead price fluctuates upward. However, as the downstream has not entered the peak season, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, which may limit the continuous upward space of the lead price [1]. - For zinc, due to the warm macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, the zinc price has rebounded. But after the rebound, it suppresses the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to inventory accumulation and limited rebound space. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% to 17,025 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract rose by 0.29% to 17,295 yuan/ton. The basis was - 270 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai lead was - 55 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Position - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 24,330 lots, down 29.37%; the open interest was 51,672 lots, down 2.28%; the trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.47, down 27.72% [1]. Inventory - LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, with no change; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 46,439 tons, with no change [1]. Industry Information - From June 28 to July 3, the weekly operation rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 68.46%, up 2.25 percentage points; that of secondary lead enterprises was 34.8%, up 0.2 percentage points; that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.83%, up 3.06 percentage points [1]. - A new 200,000 - ton/year production line of a primary lead smelter in Central China was ignited and put into operation, expected to produce lead ingots next week, with an initial expected daily output increase of 300 tons, and up to 600 tons if raw material supply is guaranteed [1]. Zinc Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.09% to 22,340 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the main futures contract rose by 0.38% to 22,410 yuan/ton. The basis was - 70 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai zinc was 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 65 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Position - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 153,571 lots, up 15.75%; the open interest was 128,000 lots, up 0.05%; the trading volume to open interest ratio was 1.20, up 15.69% [1]. Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 112,325 tons, with no change; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 7,246 tons, up 9.80% [1]. Industry Information - From June 28 to July 3, the weekly operation rate of galvanizing enterprises was 56.48%, up 0.27 percentage points; that of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 49.14%, up 2.6 percentage points; that of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.14%, down 2.58 percentage points [1]. - As of July 3, the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 6,000 tons, unchanged from last week [1].
铅锌日评：区间整理-20250707
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-07 09:10