Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-07 09:26Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream is in the off - season, the processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased year - on - year, the downstream consumption is gradually weakening, the inventory shipment speed has slowed down, and the domestic social inventory is stable. However, the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up the domestic price. Technically, the position has decreased, both long and short sides are cautious, the price has broken below the MA10 support, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,735.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 261,401 lots, down 1,332 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 15,031 lots, down 6,186 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 8,071 tons, up 825 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 45,364 tons (weekly), up 1,731 tons; the LME inventory is 112,325 tons (daily), down 350 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,050 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan [3]. - The basis of the main ZN contract is 180 yuan/ton; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 21.64 dollars/ton, up 0.35 dollars [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production (monthly) is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 455,900 tons up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory (weekly) is 63,600 tons, up 2,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.79% (daily), down 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.79% (daily), down 0.35 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.57% (daily), up 1.16 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.96% (daily), up 0.2 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US government will issue notices of new tariff rates to countries without trade agreements from July 4, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, and plans to implement them officially from August 1. The upper limit of 70% is much higher than the 50% announced in April [3]. - Data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that the global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. The index is still in the contraction range, but the continuous small increase reflects that the global economic recovery has picked up [3].