瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the precious metals market has intensified long - short games, with short - term dives in Shanghai gold and silver. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the rate - cut expectation is likely to be postponed to after September, causing short - term upward resistance for gold prices. Gold may face short - term correction pressure, and if trade negotiations progress smoothly, gold prices may continue to be under pressure. In the long - term, factors like the continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit support gold prices, but it may mainly fluctuate within a range. Silver is expected to remain firm due to a tight supply - demand structure and the restoration of its industrial attributes [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 771.3 yuan/gram, down 5.76; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 8872 yuan/kilogram, down 47. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 175,760 hands, up 720; those of Shanghai silver are 229,481 hands, down 21,237. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 141,279 hands, down 1,840; those of Shanghai silver are 85,369 hands, down 2,361. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 21,456 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 1,330,695 kilograms, down 9,051 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 767.8 yuan/gram, down 3.2; the silver spot price is 8912 yuan/kilogram, up 15. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.5 yuan/gram, up 2.56; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 40 yuan/kilogram, up 62 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 947.66 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings are 14,868.74 tons, up 22.62. The CFTC non - commercial net positions of gold are 195,004 contracts, down 5,644; those of silver are 62,947 contracts, down 4,227. The quarterly total supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The quarterly total demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the annual global total demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.01%, down 0.37; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.53%, up 0.08. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.01%, up 0.23; that of at - the - money put options is 21.01%, up 0.24 [3] 3.5 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the trade negotiations are at a dead - end in the final stage, with a busy 72 - hour period ahead. The deadline of August 1 is set, and if no agreement is reached, tariffs will return to the April level. Elon Musk founded the "American Party" on July 5, having a disagreement with Trump over the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill. Trump signed the bill, terminating clean - energy tax credits and favoring traditional energy. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and in September is 30.6% [3]