Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-07 09:20Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term of the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate decreased last week, and the Sinopec Zhongyuan olefin plant is planned to stop this week, so the operating rate may continue to decline [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 685,709 lots, a decrease of 9,054 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 98,061 lots, a decrease of 5,204 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,625, a decrease of 30 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 282 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 340 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. FOB Rotterdam is 248 euros/ton, a decrease of 7 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 58 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.39 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 50.95 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons; in South China ports, it is 16.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons. The methanol import profit is 1.27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 million tons, an increase of 50.46 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.18%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 46.07%, a decrease of 2.88 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%, a decrease of 3.97 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 93.42%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 65.06%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 84.6%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 919 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.45%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.89%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 18.53%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.68%, unchanged [3] Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. Due to the sub - optimal recovery of some olefin plants in the Northwest and the normal operation of supporting methanol plants, enterprise inventory accumulated rapidly. As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, while that in South China decreased by 10,300 tons. Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was more than the production capacity output from recovery, resulting in a slight decrease in overall production [3]