Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-07 09:32Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories will increase slightly, while overseas inventories will decline again. With the introduction of the economic stimulus bill, the demand for economic stimulus is obvious, and lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,210 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,057 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars [3]. - The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead was - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 86,558 lots, down 194 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 221 lots, down 382 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt was 46,814 tons, up 375 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 53,303 tons, up 1,374 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, down 2,625 tons [3]. - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network was 16,975 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market was 17,140 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The basis of the lead main contract was - 235 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 24.63 dollars/ton, up 1.84 dollars [3]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,320 yuan, up 24 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,870 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [3]. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 79.05%, up 2.26%; the weekly output of primary lead was 36,300 tons, up 500 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [3]. - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3]. - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 560 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries was 10,144.64 yuan/ton, down 30.36 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,525 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,731.98 points, down 45.92 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles [3]. - The monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [3]. Industry News - Trump may send 12 or 15 tariff - related letters on Monday and has reached some agreements [3]. - US Treasury Secretary Baysent said that several major agreements are close to being reached. If countries receiving tariff letters fail to reach agreements, the tax rate will return to the April level on August 1st [3]. - The US threatened to impose a 17% tariff on European agricultural products. Negotiations between the EU and the US on trade have not made a breakthrough. Multiple small - scale trade agreement negotiations between the US and other countries have been completed [3]. - Trump signed a "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill [3]. - Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party", which was criticized by Trump and Baysent [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead have increased due to the rising lead price. The recycled lead has also seen an increase in overall operating rate and supply, but the supply increase is limited in the short term due to the raw material bottleneck [3]. - On the demand side, the market trading is generally light, and the support for lead prices is limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces has decreased [3]. - In terms of inventory, overseas inventory has declined again, while domestic inventory has increased slightly, mainly due to the obvious price difference between the domestic and overseas markets, creating an arbitrage opportunity [3].