Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-07 09:31Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8045 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 384,707 lots, the net position of the top 20 is - 5935 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 51,701 lots. The 8 - 9 month industrial silicon price difference is 5 [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 silicon is 9050 yuan/ton, the Si main contract basis is - 65 yuan/ton, and the DMC spot price is 10,560 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1690 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, the weekly social inventory is 552,000 tons, the monthly import volume is 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons, the weekly organic silicon DMC operating rate is 68.24%, the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.645 million tons, and the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons [2]. Industry News - The US Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) states that the federal photovoltaic tax credit costs $25 billion annually but saves residents $51 billion in electricity bills and brings $15 billion in tax revenue. Canceling the subsidy would increase electricity bills, affect over 300,000 jobs, and thousands of billions in investments. Trump signed a spending bill that restricts many new energy sources and affects the demand of the new energy industry [2]. Viewpoint Summary - From the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly. The electricity price in the southwest region has decreased, and large factories have plans to start production. In July, the electricity price in the southwest will further decrease, and small and medium - sized enterprises also have复产 plans. However, due to an anti - involution meeting, the probability of small factories starting furnaces is low. In the Xinjiang Yili region in the northwest, the government will continue to subsidize production enterprises with electricity price subsidies, and the supply will remain loose. From the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields. The demand from these three major downstream industries is showing a slowdown trend [2].