瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has great uncertainty, and Thailand has banned the transit transportation of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore. The Bisie mine in the Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the shortage of raw materials and cost pressure in Yunnan's production area are intertwined; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic installations, the operating rate of some manufacturers has decreased; the electronics industry has entered the off - season, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. Recently, the tin price has回调, the spot premium has been lowered to 400 yuan/ton, the trading is light, and most downstream enterprises are waiting and seeing the current price, with a slight increase in domestic inventory. However, overseas inventory continues to decline, the LME cancelled warrants increase, the premium rises, and the strong LME tin drives up the domestic price. Technically, there is a decline with reduced positions, breaking below the M10 support and returning to the previous range. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily, with a reference range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 263,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,730 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,770 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin is - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 28,262 lots, a decrease of 2,457 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 398 lots, an increase of 362 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 2,110 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,198 tons (weekly), an increase of 243 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin are 640 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,868 tons, an increase of 61 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 267,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 3,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,230 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 64 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 12,100 tons (monthly), a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,180 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strip) is 1.6014 million tons (monthly), an increase of 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 6. Industry News - US President Trump said that starting from July 4, the US government will issue notifications of new tariff rates to countries that have not reached trade agreements, with the tariff range from 10% to 70%, and plans to officially implement it on August 1. The upper limit of this tariff (70%) is much higher than the 50% announced in April. The data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in June was 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. Although the index is still in the contraction range, the consecutive two - month slight increase reflects that the recovery strength of the global economy has increased [3]