Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-07 09:51Report Overview - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Stainless Steel Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy increases the cost of nickel resource supply, but the accelerated release of Indonesia's ferronickel production capacity leads to a significant rebound in production, and the recent ferronickel price has dropped significantly, weakening the raw material cost support [2] - On the supply side, steel mills face increasing cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts, and domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, so stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2] - On the demand side, entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and remaining export demand pressure, downstream players are cautious and pessimistic. Domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought by subsequent production cuts [2] - Technically, with a decrease in positions, attention should be paid to the support of MA10, and short - term strong adjustment is expected. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,640 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 45 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5,252 lots, down 2,038 lots; the position of the main contract is 91,742 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,533 tons, down 62 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 255 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,000 yuan/ton, down 1,450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - China's monthly ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,900 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US government will issue notices of new tariff rates to countries without a trade agreement starting July 4, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, and plans to officially implement them on August 1. The upper - limit tariff (70%) is much higher than the 50% announced in April [2] - Data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that the global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising slightly for two consecutive months [2]