Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-07 09:59Report Overview - Report Date: July 7, 2025 - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is in a state of destocking, but the off - season consumption slows down the destocking speed. The overall trend is slightly bullish with oscillations. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored. The textile industry shows off - season consumption characteristics, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Price: The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract is 13,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 19,955 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Net Positions: The net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures are - 23,095 lots, an increase of 4,152 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures are - 93 lots, an increase of 222 lots [2]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the main cotton futures contract is 543,865 lots, a decrease of 2,264 lots; the open interest of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 23,566 lots, an increase of 694 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 10,039 sheets, a decrease of 28 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 2 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Cotton Price Index: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,201 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,447 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yarn Price Index: The China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s) is 23,703 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Planting and Production: The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. - Price Spread and Inventory: The cotton - yarn price spread is 5,219 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 850 thousand tons, an increase of 24 thousand tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import Volume: The monthly import volume of cotton is 40 thousand tons, a decrease of 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100 thousand tons, a decrease of 20 thousand tons [2]. - Profit and Inventory: The daily profit of imported cotton is 753 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the monthly commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 345.87 thousand tons, a decrease of 69.39 thousand tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory Days: The yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, an increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, an increase of 1.37 days [2]. - Output: The monthly output of cloth is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 0.05 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 195.1 thousand tons, a decrease of 3.6 thousand tons [2]. - Export Volume: The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, an increase of 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, an increase of 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.85%, a decrease of 0.92%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.85%, a decrease of 0.92% [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.95%, a decrease of 0.46%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 10.87%, a decrease of 1.73% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Domestic Inventory: As of July 4, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory in China is 2.7476 million tons, a decrease of 132.3 thousand tons (a decrease of 4.59%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang is 1.9128 million tons, a decrease of 117.1 thousand tons (a decrease of 5.77%) from the previous week; the commercial cotton inventory in the inland area is 435.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.5 thousand tons (a decrease of 0.57%) from the previous week [2]. - US Export: For the week ending June 26, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year is 23,700 bales, a decrease of 13% from the previous week and a decrease of 66% from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in US cotton export sales in the next market year is 106,600 bales. The US cotton export shipments are 255,800 bales, an increase of 39% from the previous week and an increase of 9% from the average of the previous four weeks [2].