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纸浆:高库存压力延续,浆价低位震荡运行
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-07 10:16
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High inventory pressure on pulp ports persists, with limited improvement in downstream demand. Paper mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand, and the operating rate remains low. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 4960 - 5220 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review: Last week, the market prices of spot pulp decreased slightly. In Shandong, the prices of coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood dropped by 50 yuan/ton, with declines of -0.84%, -0.83%, and -0.80% respectively. The prices of broadleaf pulp like Goldfish, Birdie, and Alpine decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with declines of -0.49% - -0.74%. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural pulp, and non-wood pulp remained stable [9][13]. - Pulp Futures Market Review: Last week, the pulp futures contract SP2509 oscillated within a 120-point range, closing at 5068 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.55%) for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.525 million lots, a decrease of 912,000 lots from the previous week, and the weighted open interest was 325,000 lots, an increase of 27,500 lots [14]. - Pulp Futures-Spot Basis Comparison: Due to the larger decline in the spot price of coniferous wood pulp than that of pulp futures, the basis discount continued to shrink. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 832 yuan/ton, a reduction of 22 yuan/ton from the previous week [18]. - Log Futures Market Review: Last week, the main log futures contract 2509 oscillated in a range, closing at 795.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.0 yuan/cubic meter (+0.51%) from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 102,000 lots, a decrease of 34,600 lots, and the weighted open interest was 27,600 lots, a decrease of 8,700 lots [20]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Weekly Pulp Production: Last week, pulp production was 474,000 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons (-1.82%) from the previous week. Among them, broadleaf pulp production was 205,000 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production was 201,000 tons. It is expected that this week's domestic broadleaf pulp production will be about 206,000 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production will be about 200,000 tons [4][22]. - Capacity Utilization of Broadleaf Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broadleaf pulp was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week, and that of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 84.3%, a decrease of 0.8% [27]. - Monthly Pulp Production: In June 2025, domestic pulp production was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons (-3.36%) from the previous month. Among them, wood pulp production was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons (-7.69%), and non - wood pulp production was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (-2.69%) [28]. - Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemimechanical Pulp and Broadleaf Pulp: In June 2025, domestic chemimechanical pulp production was 855,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons (-2.4%), with a capacity utilization rate of 85.0%, an increase of 0.8%. Broadleaf pulp production was 891,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons (-4.5%), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.6%, a decrease of 1.1% [32]. - Monthly Production Profit of Broadleaf Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp: In June 2025, the production profit of broadleaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167.3 yuan/ton (-25.31%) from the previous month and a decrease of 1,503.03 yuan/ton (-75.28%) from the same period last year. The production profit of chemimechanical pulp was -376.9 yuan/ton, a reduction of losses by 41.1 yuan/ton [36]. - Pulp Imports: In May 2025, pulp imports were 3.016 million tons, an increase of 123,200 tons (4.26%) from the previous month and an increase of 196,000 tons (6.95%) from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imports were 15.55 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (2.1%) from the same period last year [38]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Tissue Paper Market: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 281,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (0.36%) from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.5%, an increase of 0.1% [40]. - Downstream Cultural Paper Market: Last week, copperplate paper production was 77,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (1.32%), and the capacity utilization rate was 56.9%, an increase of 0.6%. Offset paper production was 203,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (-0.49%), and the capacity utilization rate was 57.0%, a decrease of 0.2% [44]. - Downstream Packaging Paper Market: In the packaging paper market last week, the production of white cardboard was 313,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons (3.3%), and the capacity utilization rate was 76.34%, an increase of 2.44%. The production of white board paper was 194,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (-0.51%), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.79%, a decrease of 0.36%. The production of corrugated paper was 472,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons (-1.29%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.36%, an increase of 0.01%. The production of boxboard paper was 613,500 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons (1.29%), and the capacity utilization rate was 67.75%, an increase of 1.49% [47][50]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis: Last week, in the tissue paper market, the price of Shandong wood pulp large - roll base paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.84%), while the prices of Sichuan bamboo pulp and Guangxi sugarcane pulp large - roll base paper remained stable. In the cultural paper market, the price of Shandong 70g offset paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.99%), and the price of double - copper paper remained stable. The prices of white board paper and white cardboard remained stable, while the price of corrugated paper decreased slightly, and the price of boxboard paper remained stable [51][55][57]. - Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization: In June 2025, tissue paper production was 1.193 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (-2.37%) from the previous month and an increase of 101,000 tons (9.25%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 63.0%, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous month and a decrease of 1.5% from the same period last year. White cardboard production was 1.29 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons (0.78%) from the previous month and a decrease of 42,000 tons (-3.15%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 73.3%, an increase of 2.58% from the previous month and a decrease of 4.8% from the same period last year. Offset paper production was 862,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons (-3.04%) from the previous month and a decrease of 38,000 tons (-4.22%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 56.37%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month and a decrease of 7.23% from the same period last year. Copperplate paper production was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (-2.97%) from the previous month and a decrease of 50,000 tons (-13.26%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 56.35%, an increase of 0.15% from the previous month and a decrease of 6.85% from the same period last year. The actual domestic pulp consumption in June 2025 was 3.195 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons (-1.6%) from the previous month and an increase of 4,000 tons (0.13%) from the same period last year [59][64][67]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp in China shows a trend of inventory accumulation. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.213 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons (2.31%) from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port is 1.378 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.92%), the inventory of Changshu Port is 598,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons (9.52%), and the inventory of Tianjin Port is 62,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (-3.39%) [68][70]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: Last week, pulp futures warehouse receipts were 242,800 tons, a decrease of 5,996 tons (-2.41%) from the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong were 221,900 tons, a decrease of 5,699 tons (-2.5%) [72].