PTA：供需恶化预期下，TA9-1价差或继续压缩，MEG：供需利好有限，MEG震荡整理为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With the expectation of supply increase and the arrival of the terminal seasonal off - season, downstream procurement is mainly on - demand, and there is a certain expectation of polyester load reduction. The supply - demand weakening expectation is strong. It is expected that PTA will continue to be weak in the short term, and the TA9 - 1 spread will continue to decline [6]. - MEG: The domestic production of ethylene glycol has a slight increase, the overseas device load decreases, and there is an expectation of reduced imports. However, the downstream polyester demand declines, and the supply - demand structure has no obvious positive support. It is expected that ethylene glycol will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Market Review: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant easing of the geopolitical situation and a sharp drop in international oil prices. Although the spot supply of PX was tight during the week, the large decline in costs dragged down the PX price. As of July 4, the closing price of Asian PX was 840 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton compared with June 27 [17]. - Capacity Utilization: The planned maintenance of some PX devices was implemented, resulting in a slight decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization was 84.4%, a decrease of 2.01% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization of Asian PX was 73.48%, a decrease of 1.1% [20]. - Price Spread: As of July 4, the PX - naphtha price spread was 260.9 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 US dollars/ton compared with June 27. Due to insufficient positive support in the fundamentals and weak demand expectations, the price spread declined from a high level [21]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: With the recovery of Hengli Petrochemical and Yisheng New Materials, the weaving load has been decreasing since the traditional off - season. The performance of polyester was not ideal, and the capacity utilization decreased. In addition, there were new device commissioning plans in July, and the expectation of supply - demand contradiction deterioration was strong, which hindered the purchasing enthusiasm and led to a significant weakening of the basis. As of July 4, the PTA spot price was 4835 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 101 [26]. - Capacity Utilization: The unexpected load reduction of Yisheng Hainan limited the increase in PTA capacity utilization. The weekly average PTA capacity utilization was 79.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. In July, Helen Petrochemical planned to be put into production, and Hengli had a maintenance plan. It was expected that the PTA capacity utilization would fluctuate slightly [29]. - Processing Fee: With the arrival of the traditional off - season at the terminal, the demand - side support was insufficient, and the supply side recovered. Under the expectation of supply - demand deterioration, the PTA processing fee dropped significantly this week. Next week, there was still an expectation of supply increase, and with the approaching of new device commissioning, it was expected that the PTA processing fee would decline slightly [31]. - Supply - Demand Situation: In July, although the maintenance of upstream PX was acceptable, new PTA devices were planned to be put into production, and polyester production cuts were implemented. The PTA supply - demand margin weakened, and the balance sheet was expected to accumulate inventory [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: After the geopolitical situation was alleviated, ethylene glycol prices fell and then rebounded from the bottom due to the news of Saudi device shutdown. As of July 4, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4361 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4390 yuan/ton [39]. - Domestic Production: The total capacity utilization of ethylene glycol was 59.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. In July, with the restart of maintenance enterprises, domestic production was expected to increase. In terms of imports, although the devices in Malaysia and Iran restarted, the Saudi device shutdown led to a slight increase in overall supply [42]. - Import Volume: As of July 3, the total port inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 542,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with June 30 and an increase of 36,300 tons compared with June 26. As of July 9, 2025, the expected total arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 84,300 tons [45]. - Processing Profit: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol increased month - on - month, but the import arrival was expected to decrease. During the traditional demand off - season, the downstream polyester load continued to decline. As of July 4, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 93.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24.09 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 19.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170.73 yuan/ton compared with last week [49]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Polyester Capacity Utilization: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester was 88.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. Although the load of some filament enterprises increased during the week, the large - scale production cut of Yisheng Hainan's device led to a slight decline in domestic polyester supply. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [52]. - Polyester Output: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and the large cash - flow pressure of polyester, it is expected that the monthly output of polyester will decline significantly [54]. - Inventory of Filament Factories: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament increased by 1.28% compared with the previous period, mainly due to the output increase brought by the restart of previously maintained devices. The average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber decreased by 0.30% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was stable [59]. - Inventory of Polyester Products: Due to poor demand performance, the factory sales data remained sluggish, and the finished product inventory gradually increased [60]. - Polyester Cash - Flow: The polymerization cost decreased, and manufacturers successively carried out price promotions during the week. The transaction center decreased month - on - month, and the cash - flow of most models was compressed [64]. - Weaving Industry: As of July 3, the operating load of the weaving industry was 58.09%, a decrease of 0.92% compared with the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 8.32 days, a decrease of 0.74 days compared with last week. The current textile market is cautiously bearish, and downstream orders have insufficient sustainability [69]. 3.5 Summary of the Fundamental Situation of the Polyester Industrial Chain - Cost End: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant easing of the geopolitical situation and a sharp drop in international oil prices. The large decline in costs dragged down the PX price [71]. - Supply End: The weekly average capacity utilization of PTA increased slightly, while the total capacity utilization of ethylene glycol decreased slightly [71]. - Demand End: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester decreased, and the operating load of the weaving industry declined. Terminal consumption was weak, and downstream orders had insufficient sustainability [71]. - Inventory: The PTA supply - demand balance sheet shifted from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China increased [71].