海外政策展望：跳出关税看谈判：“7月9日”还重要吗？

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The importance of the July 9 deadline is questioned, as Trump's trade policies have shown inconsistency since February, leading to a focus on short-term market volatility rather than long-term implications[1] - The U.S. has primarily focused on negotiations with major economies like Japan, China, and the EU, aiming for breakthroughs that could influence broader outcomes[2] - Limited progress has been made in negotiations with major economies, leading the U.S. to seek agreements with smaller economies like Vietnam and Cambodia[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market environment has changed, with U.S. stock indices reaching historical highs, providing Trump with leverage to adopt a more aggressive stance[3] - Potential agreements with countries like the UK and Vietnam are characterized by different approaches: the UK as a close ally with lower tariffs and Vietnam as a dependent economy facing higher tariffs[4] - The U.S. may impose a 40% tariff on goods transiting through Vietnam, reflecting a strategy to control indirect exports from China[5] Group 3: Future Trade Strategies - The U.S. trade paradigm may shift from comprehensive tariffs to focusing on supply chains and international taxation, indicating a broader strategy beyond mere tariff increases[6] - The U.S. aims to collect more revenue from indirect exports while maintaining a flexible approach to direct tariffs on China, potentially targeting a 30% rate[7] - The upcoming negotiations may involve a combination of temporary agreements and ongoing discussions, particularly with larger economies like China, Japan, and the EU[8]