平安固收：2025年5月机构行为思考：银行配国债，保险、资管户配信用

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the bond custody scale maintained rapid growth, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.1% in the bond custody balance. The newly added custody scale in that month was 2.3 trillion yuan, 940.2 billion yuan more than the seasonal level [4][5]. - The supply of treasury bonds increased by nearly one trillion, while the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit and credit bonds declined. The total supply of government bonds (treasury bonds + local bonds) in May was close to 1.4 trillion yuan, with treasury bonds and local bonds at 904.1 billion yuan and 521.6 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Banks and asset management accounts were the main buyers, while foreign investors and securities firms reduced their holdings. After deducting the net repurchase of central bank's outright reverse repurchase, banks' net bond purchases in May still reached 1.6 trillion yuan. Non - legal person products increased their holdings by 833.3 billion yuan, 313.7 billion yuan more than the seasonal level [4]. - The supply of local bonds will accelerate, and the demand from asset management accounts is good. In June, the supply of local bonds accelerated, which is expected to drive government bond financing to remain at a relatively high level. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, the overall inter - bank funds have a strong ability to absorb bond supply [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Scale in May 2025 - The bond custody balance in May 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 15.1%, and the newly added custody scale was 2.3 trillion yuan, 940.2 billion yuan more than the seasonal level [4][5]. 3.2 By Bond Type - Treasury bonds, local bonds, financial bonds, certificates of deposit, and policy - based financial bonds were the main varieties of new net financing in May, with net financing of 904.1 billion yuan, 521.6 billion yuan, 306.4 billion yuan, 269.4 billion yuan, and 208.4 billion yuan respectively [9]. - The supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit and corporate credit bonds declined. The net supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit in May was 269.4 billion yuan, lower than that in April. Corporate credit bond supply fell to 89 billion yuan [18]. 3.3 By Institution - Banks and non - legal person products (asset management accounts) were the main bond buyers, with their custody volume increasing by 1.8 trillion yuan and 833.3 billion yuan respectively, significantly higher than the seasonal level. Securities firms' proprietary trading and overseas institutions reduced their holdings [21]. - Commercial banks increased their holdings by 1.8 trillion yuan. After considering the net repurchase of central bank's outright reverse repurchase of 200 billion yuan, the actual purchase scale in May was 1.6 trillion yuan. Banks had strong digestion ability for government bonds, and in May, they increased their holdings of government bonds by about 1.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 93% of the government bond supply [25]. - Insurance institutions increased their holdings by 586 million yuan, less than the seasonal level, and mainly increased their holdings of credit bonds. In May, the government bonds they increased their holdings accounted for only 1% of the new government bond supply [27]. - Non - legal person products increased their holdings by 833.3 billion yuan, 313.7 billion yuan more than the seasonal level, mainly increasing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit. Since April 2024, the year - on - year growth rate of wealth management scale has remained above 8% [29]. - In May, fund companies' net bond purchases in the secondary market were 507.7 billion yuan, an increase from April. They mainly increased their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit, with a preference for short - term varieties within 3 years [38]. - Foreign investors reduced their holdings by 933 million yuan, mainly reducing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The reduction was due to the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and the decline in carry - trade returns [41]. - Securities firms reduced their holdings by 1576 million yuan, reducing their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit. The reduction may be related to the closing of positive - carry trades after the reserve requirement ratio cut [41]. 3.4 Outlook - The supply of local bonds will accelerate, driving the supply of government bonds to increase month - on - month. As of June 19, the net financing of local special bonds in June was 347.4 billion yuan [43]. - Banks' liability pressure has eased, and their allocation demand has improved, but they may sell bonds to realize profits at the end of the quarter. As of June 20, commercial banks had net sold 1.7 trillion yuan of bonds in the secondary market, 1.2 trillion yuan more than the seasonal level [49]. - Insurance institutions are expected to maintain a moderately weak bond - allocation intensity. The bond - allocation progress of insurance this year is relatively fast, and the attractiveness of the 10 - year treasury bond yield has decreased. They may focus on ultra - long - term bonds with spreads [55]. - Asset management accounts are expected to maintain a strong bond - allocation intensity. After the deposit interest rate cut, there may be continuous capital inflows into asset management accounts. In the first three weeks of June, funds and wealth management products maintained a strong buying intensity in the secondary market [56].