利率债周报：债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化-20250707

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the bond market. 2. Core Views - Last week, the bond market showed a warm and volatile trend, with the yield curve becoming steeper. Despite some negative factors, the market was supported by loose liquidity and reduced treasury bond issuance, leading to a slight decline in long - term bond yields. Short - term rates continued to fall due to "spread - chasing" trades, further steepening the yield curve [1]. - This week, the bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend. The upcoming June inflation data is likely to improve marginally but remain at a low level, with limited negative impact on the bond market. If liquidity remains loose, short - term bond rates may decline further. Long - term rates will likely continue to fluctuate, and the yield curve is expected to keep steepening [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was warm and volatile last week, with long - term bond yields falling slightly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.03% for the week. The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.29bp, and the 1 - year yield dropped by 0.90bp compared to the previous Friday, widening the term spread [3]. - Daily trends: On June 30, the bond market weakened initially but recovered slightly at the end. From July 1 - 3, the market was generally positive due to loose liquidity and "spread - chasing" trades. On July 4, short - term bonds were strong, while long - term bonds weakened slightly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [3]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - A total of 47 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, 130 fewer than the previous week. The issuance volume was 513.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 354.4 billion yuan, and the net financing was 376.6 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 404.1 billion yuan. Treasury and policy - bank bond issuance and net financing increased, while local government bond issuance and net financing decreased significantly [11]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiples for treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds were 4.21 times, 3.38 times, and 21.15 times respectively [12]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - In June, China's macro - economic sentiment continued to recover. The manufacturing PMI rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%. The improvement was due to the effects of growth - stabilizing policies and eased trade tensions. The service PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, in line with seasonal patterns [13]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - On the production side, most high - frequency data declined last week, including blast furnace operating rates, semi - steel tire operating rates, and daily hot - metal production, while the asphalt plant operating rate increased slightly. - On the demand side, the BDI index and the CCFI index both decreased, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities dropped significantly. - In terms of prices, pork prices rebounded slightly, and most commodity prices rose, including crude oil, copper, and rebar [14]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan from the open market last week. - R007 and DR007 both declined significantly, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks decreased, the 3 - month national - share direct - discount rate dropped, and the volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio fluctuated slightly and remained basically the same as the previous week [24].