Workflow
苯乙烯日报:美国乙烷恢复对华出口,定价重回基本面-20250707
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-07 11:01
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. In the third quarter, it will face a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the mismatch in the production schedules of new upstream and downstream capacities [3]. - The styrene market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern. With the 3S entering the traditional off - season and the decline in downstream开工率, styrene has entered a inventory accumulation channel. Attention should be paid to the change of the near - end basis and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Fundamentals - On July 4, the main styrene contract closed up 0.59% at 7340 yuan/ton, with a basis of 290 (+22 yuan/ton). The main Brent crude oil contract closed at 67.0 dollars/barrel (-0.5 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 68.8 dollars/barrel (-0.3 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5880 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.4 million tons (-0.6 million tons), a 3.0% decrease in inventory compared to the previous period. Jiangsu port inventory was 9.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 16.2% increase in inventory compared to the previous period, and overall styrene inventory tended to accumulate [2]. - Styrene maintenance devices gradually returned, and overall supply remained stable. Currently, the weekly styrene output remained at 36.7 million tons (+0 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 80.0% (-0.1%) [2]. - The capacity utilization rates of the three major downstream products (3S) of styrene changed differently. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 55.9 (-3.84%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 65.0% (-1.0%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 52.4% (-5.0%), with the overall开工 rate declining [2]. 3.1.2. Views - Pure Benzene: The current pure benzene market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The supply side has fluctuations in the petroleum benzene开工率, while the hydrogenated benzene开工率 has climbed to a historical high. The demand has recovered to the level before the maintenance season in the second quarter. This week, the East China port inventory accumulated, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next Monday. The news of the possible early commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's pure benzene unit has widened the price difference between pure benzene and styrene. In the third quarter, it will face a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand [3]. - Styrene: The current styrene market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern. Although the overall industry开工率 remains stable, the weekly output has reached a historical high. The开工 rates of the three major downstream products (PS, ABS, EPS) have all declined. The 3S has entered the traditional off - season, and the terminal's consumption demand expectation for the third quarter is pessimistic. The East China port inventory has significantly accumulated, and styrene has entered an inventory accumulation channel. However, due to the continuous stockpiling behavior of industrial giants, the basis of the July contract has not returned to the normal level, and attention should be paid to the change of the near - end basis and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1. Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On July 4, the main styrene futures contract price increased by 0.59% to 7340 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7904 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 8.21% to 290 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 0.34% to 5880 yuan/ton [6]. - The prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB), the United States (FOB), and China (CFR) all had small fluctuations, with increases of 0.42%, 0.00%, and 0.14% respectively. The price difference between domestic and imported pure benzene and the price difference between East China and Shandong pure benzene also changed [6]. - The prices of upstream Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all decreased, with decreases of 0.67%, 0.45%, and 0.10% respectively [6]. 3.2.2. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From June 27 to July 4, the styrene output in China remained at 36.7 million tons, and the pure benzene output remained at 43.3 million tons [7]. - The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 16.24% to 9.9 million tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased by 2.99% to 19.4 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 3.51% to 17.7 million tons [7]. 3.2.3.开工Rate Situation - Among the pure benzene downstream products, the styrene capacity utilization rate decreased slightly by 0.05% to 80.0%, the caprolactam capacity utilization rate increased by 6.41% to 95.7%, the phenol capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.46% to 78.5%, and the aniline capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.10% to 69.2% [8]. - Among the styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.84% to 55.9%, the ABS capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.96% to 65.0%, and the PS capacity utilization rate decreased by 5.00% to 52.4% [8]. 3.3. Industry News - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary admits that it may be difficult to complete all negotiations [9]. - Trump may lead a delegation to visit China. US officials are formulating a plan for Trump to lead dozens of CEOs to visit China later this year, similar to his Middle East trip in May, which facilitated transactions worth over 2 trillion dollars [9]. - Republican senators promoted the passage of a "great and beautiful" bill. The US Senate advanced Trump's tax reform bill with a narrow 51 - 49 vote in a key procedural vote [9]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [10][16][17][28]