铜供需弱平衡确立，高位震荡渐承压

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market may maintain a high - level, volatile and weakening pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The core drivers include the domestic smelting increment on the supply side offsetting overseas mine - end disturbances, the continuous fermentation of off - season pressure and high - price suppression effects on the demand side, and the poor macro - sentiment due to the US non - farm payroll data exceeding expectations and suppressing interest - rate cut expectations [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Copper Futures Market Data Changes: On July 4, the SHFE main contract price dropped 0.81% to 80,030 yuan/ton, and the LME three - month copper price fell to 9,951.5 dollars/ton. The discount of flat - water copper remained at 80 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper narrowed to - 5 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) basis fell to 87.61 dollars/ton. The LME open interest slightly shrank to 282,135 lots, and the domestic SHFE inventory increased 1.01% to 95,275 tons within the week [1] - Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain: - Supply Side: In June, Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China dropped to 29,990 tons and 809,837 tons respectively, limiting short - term overseas mine - end increments. China's electrolytic copper production in the first half of the year increased 11.4% year - on - year [2] - Demand Side: The off - season effect deepened. In the first week of July, the operating rate of refined copper rods turned negative year - on - year, the operating rate of cable enterprises dropped to 67.81%, and the household appliance production plan decreased 2.6% year - on - year. Only the power sector's demand was relatively stable, but it could not offset the overall weak consumption [2] - Inventory Side: The LME inventory decreased 7.45% to 22,307 tons within the week, the COMEX inventory increased 3.7% to 220,954 short tons, and the domestic SHFE inventory continuously increased to 95,275 tons, but the total inventory was still at a year - on - year low [2] - Market Summary: The copper market may maintain a high - level, volatile and weakening pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Price Changes: On July 4, the SMM 1 copper price was 80,580 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous day. The SHFE price was 80,030 yuan/ton, down 0.81%, and the LME price was 9,852 dollars/ton, down 1.00%. The discount of wet - process copper narrowed, and the LME (0 - 3) basis increased 8.83% [5] - Inventory Changes: The LME inventory decreased 7.45% to 22,307 tons, the SHFE inventory increased 1.01% to 95,275 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased to 220,954 short tons [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 5, Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China in June decreased. EroCopper's Tucuma copper project in Brazil achieved commercial production, but analysts were skeptical about its annual production target [6] - On July 4, due to the off - season and high copper prices, the operating rates of refined copper rod and cable enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased. Except for the power sector, other industries' demand was generally suppressed by high copper prices [6][7] - On July 3, the second rotary anode furnace of the fire - smelting system of the Yunnan Zhongyou non - ferrous metal recycled copper resource recycling base project produced the first furnace of anode copper, marking the full completion of the project [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [8][9][13]