Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain a low - level oscillation. Although there are some marginal improvement signals in the fundamentals, the high inventory and weak actual procurement limit the upward space of prices, while the cost and expected improvement support the downside [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On July 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 63,280 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day; the basis rose from - 1,880 yuan/ton to - 880 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.63% to 325,000 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 17.4% to 348,000 lots, indicating a decline in market trading activity [2]. b. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply side: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.59% month - on - month to 61.8%, and there is still medium - term supply pressure; the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable, not significantly disturbing the cost [3]. - Demand side: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose steadily. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.15% month - on - month to 30,705 yuan/ton, and ternary materials also rose slightly. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in June reached 52.7%. The cell prices remained stable, and downstream manufacturers' acceptance of high - priced lithium salts was limited, with procurement mainly for rigid restocking [3]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased to 138,347 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, with five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [3]. c. Price Trend Judgment - The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain a low - level oscillation. Although the contradiction is weakened under the double increase of supply and demand, the inventory suppression still exists. The spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the steady growth of new energy vehicle sales in June supports the demand expectation. However, although there is partial production reduction on the supply side, the release of new production capacity and high inventory pressure limit the price rebound space [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 4, 2025, compared with July 3, the main contract of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.25% to 63,280 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 53.19% to - 880 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.63% to 325,288 lots; the trading volume decreased by 17.4% to 347,729 lots; the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.32% to 62,400 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [6]. - Compared with June 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.59% to 61.8%; the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.1% to 138,347 tons. The prices of various types of cells remained unchanged [6]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 4, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,240 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 186 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,700 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan/ton. Affected by the improved demand expectation in July, the spot price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. However, the supply is still at a high level, and the inventory pressure remains [7]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on July 3, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.071 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month increase of 4%, with a retail penetration rate of 52.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.429 million, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 1.259 million, a year - on - year increase of 28% and a month - on - month increase of 3%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 50.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 6.465 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [8]. c. Industry News - On July 4, Zangge Mining's subsidiary participated in the investment - holding of Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., which received the "Construction Project Construction Permit" for the "Mami Cuo Salt Lake Mining Area Lithium Boron Mine Project", which is beneficial for expanding the company's salt lake lithium extraction capacity [9][10]. - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned to upgrade and transform its 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line and invest 120.7 million yuan to build a 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical transformation project, with a shutdown and transformation time of about 6 months [10]. - On June 24, the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project estimated a total investment of 4.537 billion yuan, with an annual production of 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate and 17,000 tons of borax as a by - product [10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, cathode precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [11][14][16]
库存压制叠加需求隐现改善，碳酸锂延续震荡格局
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-07 11:00