上半年，京沪杭蓉领跑土拍市场

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The land transfer fees rebounded in the first half of 2025 after four years of decline, with significant differentiation among cities. The core cities increased the supply of high - quality land, attracting market - oriented real estate enterprises to bid, which is expected to boost the real estate sales volume at the end of the year. The supply of land in core cities may decrease in the second half of the year, and the market - oriented real estate enterprises' land - acquisition scale may decline, while the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies may increase [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First half of the year: Land transfer fees rebounded and cities were highly differentiated - After reaching a peak of 8.2 trillion yuan in 2020, the land transfer fees decreased for four consecutive years. From January to June 2025, they reached 1.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The rebound was mainly due to core cities increasing the supply of core land plots and the cancellation of price - limit policies, leading to high - premium competition among developers [5]. - The concentration of land auction amounts in key cities increased. The top 3, top 5, and top 15 cities in terms of transfer fees accounted for about 1/4, 1/3, and 1/2 of the national market share respectively, 6 - 9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][5]. - Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu stood out with high transfer fees and premium rates. After excluding these four cities, the transfer fees from January to June increased by only 0.4% year - on - year. After excluding the top 15 cities, the transfer fees decreased by 6% [1][14]. - Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Sichuan had relatively good land auction performances. Zhejiang, Beijing, and Shanghai had strong market - oriented land - acquisition forces, with transfer fees ranging from 700 billion to 220 billion yuan from January to June, year - on - year growth rates exceeding 20%, and the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies below 20%. Guangdong and Sichuan had transfer fees between 650 billion and 800 billion yuan, year - on - year growth rates exceeding 40%, and the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies between 20 - 40%. Nearly half of the provinces and cities had weak land markets, with 14 provinces and cities experiencing negative year - on - year growth in transfer fees, and 4 provinces (Jiangxi, Jilin, Shaanxi, Shandong) having a decline of over 25% [14]. 3.2 Second half of the year: The land supply in core cities may weaken, focus on Shanghai's July land auction - In July 2025, the starting price of land supply was 214.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 29%, indicating a weakening of overall land supply. The month - on - month decline in supply suggests that the transfer fees in July will likely be negative, but the year - on - year figure may be flat or have a minimum decline of 11% [2][18]. - In terms of high - value land plots (starting price over 2 billion yuan), most were concentrated in Shanghai in July. The starting price of Shanghai's land supply in July increased by 156% year - on - year and 18% month - on - month, involving prime locations such as Nanjing West Road and North Bund. It is expected that the land auction in Shanghai will remain hot in July. There was also one high - value land plot each in Suzhou and Hangzhou, with starting prices of 4.3 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan respectively [2][19]. - This year, the land supply in core cities may follow a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half. Market - oriented real estate enterprises may reduce their land - acquisition scale in the second half, while urban investment companies may enter the land auction market in non - core cities. According to historical data since 2021, the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies usually rises in the fourth quarter, especially from November to December, reaching over 60% on average and over 80% in some third - and fourth - tier cities [2][22].