纯碱：供需宽松，弱势难改

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Mid - term, the overall downward trend of soda ash remains unchanged, and a bearish approach is still recommended. High upstream inventory and concentrated inventory distribution may lead to short - term price stimulation during the third - quarter maintenance season due to supply - side accidents or macro - policies, but there is limited room for rebound under overall supply pressure. By the end of the third quarter, with the end of annual maintenance, the soda ash industry will face significant inventory pressure, and it may be advisable to short the 01 contract on price rallies, but with light positions due to relatively low absolute prices [2][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the soda ash futures price rose and then fell, with the overall price center shifting down. Pre - holiday stocking in January improved enterprise orders, but price dropped after the holiday due to inventory accumulation. In late February, the price rose on maintenance expectations, then fell again in March due to poor downstream demand. In April, the market showed a negative feedback loop with an enlarged price decline. In May, increased maintenance led to a limited price rebound, and in June, new production capacity and reduced maintenance increased supply pressure and pushed the price down again [6]. - The basis of soda ash strengthened slightly in H1 2025 as the futures price dropped more than the spot price. The registered warehouse receipts of soda ash showed seasonal changes, with an absolute quantity higher than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread can be seasonally focused on before the 09 contract delivery [9]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - In 2025, new production capacity has been added, including Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali Industry, and Hubei Shuanghuan. Future planned capacity includes Yuanxing Phase 2 and Xindu Chemical. The industry supply is still expanding, and there are long - term investment plans [12]. - The maintenance rhythm in 2025 is similar to last year. Maintenance in March and May led to a decline in production, but overall production remained high due to increased total capacity. In June, production was expected to continue increasing. The overall start - up rate in 2025 decreased slightly compared to last year, but the monthly average production exceeded 3 million tons. In July - August, the traditional maintenance season, the industry start - up rate will decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the load reduction of existing capacity under low - profit conditions in the second half of the year [12]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - Float Glass: In the first half of 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased. As of June 30, it was 157,800 tons, and the glass production was 28.409 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. The glass market was in a pattern of inventory accumulation and price decline. With the current real - estate data, the construction side of the real - estate industry is unlikely to improve glass demand in the second half of the year. The new and cold - repaired production capacities of glass are expected to offset each other, but if demand remains weak, cold - repair willingness will increase. The rigid demand for soda ash from float glass may decrease slightly in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the possibility of glass factories restocking at low soda ash prices [26]. - Photovoltaic Glass: In the first half of 2025, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, but it was still lower than the same period last year. As of June 30, the daily melting volume was 94,000 tons, an increase of 10,250 tons from the beginning of the year. The downstream component factories' rush - to - install behavior in March increased the purchase of photovoltaic glass, but the new ignition speed slowed down later. In June, the daily melting volume began to decline marginally, and leading enterprises planned to cut production in July. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to face pressure in the second half of the year, and the daily melting volume at the end of the year may return to 83,000 - 85,000 tons or lower. The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease year - on - year [34][36]. - Light Soda Ash: The downstream of light soda ash is scattered, mainly small factories, with obvious seasonal start - up characteristics. The demand is generally related to economic development, and the actual stocking sentiment is affected by price fluctuations. In the first half of 2025, the light soda ash market performed slightly better than the heavy soda ash market. In the long - term, with the expected macro - economic recovery, the demand for light soda ash may be boosted, but the overall increase may be limited [41]. - Exports and Imports: In the first half of 2025, soda ash imports decreased significantly year - on - year, with a cumulative import volume of 16,100 tons from January to May, a decrease of 97.7%. Exports increased significantly, with a cumulative export volume of 835,600 tons from January to May, an increase of 453,300 tons or 118.6%. Exports are mainly concentrated in Asian regions. In the second half of the year, imports are expected to remain low, and exports are expected to remain relatively high, with a significant year - on - year increase for the whole year [47][48]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories increased significantly. As of June 30, the inventory was 1.7688 million tons, a significant increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory of middle and downstream is also not low. The inventory in delivery warehouses was about 230,000 tons at the beginning of July, and the inventory days of downstream glass factories were about 22 days, about 29 days including in - transit inventory. The soda ash industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year, with a limited accumulation rate in July - August due to maintenance and possible downstream restocking, but significant inventory pressure after the third quarter [50][51]. 3.5 Cost - profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, although the spot price of soda ash declined, the cost also decreased due to the fall in raw material prices, and soda ash factories still had a small profit, which supported a relatively high start - up rate. In the second half of the year, coal prices are expected to decline slightly, and the price of raw salt is expected to remain stable. The cost of soda ash may decline slightly. With the end of seasonal maintenance, the supply - demand pressure will reappear, and the spot price of soda ash is expected to decline, leading to a further decline in the profit of soda ash factories [62]. 3.6 Summary and Outlook - Supply: In July - August, although there is still some maintenance, the industry start - up and production will remain at a high level. In September, with less maintenance, the start - up rate will increase significantly, and the supply pressure will be particularly obvious in the fourth quarter, and the high - inventory problem of upstream cannot be solved [66]. - Demand: The profit of float glass is low, and the daily melting volume is expected to decrease slightly in the second half of the year, reducing the demand for soda ash. Photovoltaic glass is also expected to reduce its daily melting volume due to inventory pressure, and the demand for soda ash will decrease year - on - year. The downstream of light soda ash is affected by the macro - economy, and some downstream enterprises face inventory and profit pressure [66]. - Overall: The downward trend of soda ash remains unchanged, and a bearish approach is recommended. High upstream inventory and concentrated inventory distribution may lead to short - term price stimulation, but there is limited room for rebound. After the third - quarter maintenance, significant inventory pressure will emerge, and it may be advisable to short the 01 contract on price rallies with light positions [66].