Changjiang Securities·2025-07-07 11:21Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a continued downturn in 2025, with mixed performance across sub-sectors, as indicated by revenue growth rates of +3.1% for chemical raw materials, -6.6% for chemical fibers, and +6.0% for rubber and plastics from January to April 2025 [6][21]. - Profitability remains weak, with the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector reporting a profit decline of -4.4%, while the chemical fiber sector saw a more significant drop of -11.7% [21][23]. - The report highlights that only 15.6% of the 32 mainstream chemical products have price differentials above the historical 50th percentile, indicating a generally low pricing environment [30]. Group 2 - The global GDP growth forecast for 2025 is approximately 2.8%, down from 3.3% in 2024, with emerging markets leading the growth while developed economies face persistent inflation [7][33]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions contribute to uncertainties in export demand, with a noted decline in the export value of chemical products from China by -3.4% in early 2025 [37][43]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry may see structural benefits in supply and demand dynamics in the latter half of 2025, with certain sub-sectors expected to recover from their lows [8][9]. Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on cyclical sectors with elasticity, recommending products such as refrigerants, potassium fertilizers, phosphates, pesticides, and polyester filament [8][9]. - Stable growth sectors are highlighted, including civil explosives, sweeteners, and amino acids, which are expected to maintain steady demand [10]. - New productivity avenues are identified, particularly in humanoid robotics and AI materials, with a focus on domestic production capabilities in high-end materials due to international trade frictions [11][52].