Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro aspect: On July 3rd, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with an expected increase of 110,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, expected to be 4.3%. After the release of non - farm data, the probability of a Fed rate cut in July dropped to single - digits [6]. - Fundamental aspect: The non - ferrous sector remained relatively strong. Last week, the zinc price fluctuated above 22,000. Processing fees continued to rise, and domestic smelter output was expected to increase. The supply of zinc ore was becoming more abundant cyclically. In 2025, several major zinc mines planned to increase production, driving up the global zinc ore output and strengthening the spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in the mine end was transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelter operating rates increased, and maintenance was postponed. Refined zinc output gradually recovered, and this trend was expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes might drag down the global economic growth rate, and there were concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if new trade agreements were quickly reached and the global economic growth rate remained resilient, there was no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, mainly maintaining the status quo. Whether the demand was estimated optimistically or pessimistically, the zinc supply - demand balance tended to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [6]. - Strategy aspect: In the short and medium term, the rebound of the zinc price was mainly driven by the overall sentiment of the sector and commodities, with little change in its own fundamentals. The recent strength of non - ferrous metals was mainly due to regional premiums caused by tariffs, not an indication of the strengthening of the global manufacturing industry. Therefore, the sustainability of the zinc price rebound was expected to be limited, and it was advisable to consider shorting at high prices [6]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - Zinc concentrate output: In April 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history and half of the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters might face operational pressure. However, the long - term contract TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of looser zinc ore supply remained unchanged [8]. - Zinc concentrate imports and processing fees: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. The increase in imports boosted the processing fees. As of July 4th, the processing fee for imported zinc ore was reported at $66.25/ton, and that for domestic zinc ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees had been raised several times recently [11]. - Smelter profit estimation: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits had been continuously improved [14]. - Refined zinc output: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc output was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recovered, output was gradually increasing [18]. - Refined zinc import profit and import volume: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The refined zinc import window was currently closed [21]. 3.2 Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - Initial consumption of refined zinc: In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [26]. - Terminal consumption of refined zinc - Part 1: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction remained weak [28]. - Terminal consumption of refined zinc - Part 2: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [31]. 3.3 Other Indicators - Inventory: As the off - season approached, social inventories of zinc increased slightly [33]. - Spot premium/discount: As of July 4th, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $21.64/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium declined [36]. - Exchange positions: As of June 27th, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 17,814 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [39].
沪锌周报：受板块带动，反弹后震荡整理-20250707
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-07 11:37