甲醇专题报告：上下空间有限

Report Title - Methanol Special Report: Limited Upside and Downside Space [1] Report Date - July 7, 2025 [2] Main Viewpoints - After the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, the premium brought by geopolitical risks has been reversed. Recently, the South Pars gas field has resumed gas supply, and some Iranian methanol plants have gradually restarted. The previous expectation of a significant reduction in Iranian methanol imports has been revised upwards. However, factors such as low Iranian methanol inventory and China's domestic ship policies will still affect the arrival schedule. Currently, domestic methanol production profits are substantial, and supply remains abundant. Affected by poor profits and seasonality, downstream demand is expected to decline. Especially after the sharp increase in methanol prices, the loss margins of downstream industries have expanded rapidly. Against the backdrop of low inventories in inland areas and ports, the upside and downside space of the 09 contract is limited before the inventory accumulation expectation is fully realized. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the actual operating status and shipping and dispatch situation of Iranian methanol plants, as well as the downstream's acceptance of high-priced methanol [4] Market Performance - After the previous Israel-Iran geopolitical conflict broke out, against the backdrop of the market's expectation of a significant reduction in imports, the methanol main contract quickly rose to a high of nearly 2,600 yuan/ton. However, after the conflict subsided, the methanol main contract began to decline significantly, but its price bottom has been significantly higher than before the conflict. Currently, the methanol main contract continues to fluctuate around the 2,400 yuan/ton level [7] - At the end of June, affected by factors such as tight port supplies, historically low inventories, and the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants due to the Israel-Iran conflict and the expected decline in imports, the methanol spot price skyrocketed, especially the paper cargo price in the second half of June soared (the paper cargo volume and position market emerged), but the futures price was relatively restrained. At this time, the methanol port basis once soared above 400 yuan/ton, showing a rare phenomenon of a high degree of divergence between the spot and futures markets. The fundamental reason lies in the different delivery targets. Since paper cargo is delivered with imported goods, it is affected by the Israel-Iran conflict, and the expected imported arrivals are scarce. Moreover, those who had previously shorted also have the need to cover their positions, which also amplifies price fluctuations. However, after the Israel-Iran conflict subsided, the imported arrivals gradually returned to normal, and this premium was quickly squeezed out. It can be seen that after the paper cargo short squeeze ended, the methanol spot price dropped nearly 260 yuan/ton the next day. However, since futures reflect the overall market situation, and domestic factories, coastal warehouses, and trader factories can all be used for delivery, and credit warehouse receipts can be used, the overall situation is unlikely to face a severe shortage of goods, and its price fluctuations are not as extreme as those on the paper cargo side and are relatively rational [9]