正信期货铜周报20250707-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price fluctuated within a week, which was in line with expectations. The macro - level driving force was limited, and the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts was slightly dampened. The US economic "hard data" remained resilient, reducing the probability of the Fed's action in July. The tariff game led to pressure on the macro - sentiment. In China, the manufacturing data rebounded slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. - The mid - year long - term contract negotiation ended at $0, severely hitting the long - term profitability of smelters. The domestic production remained high, and the profit from sulfuric acid and by - products barely offset the losses. The domestic off - season deepened, the spot premium declined from its high, but due to the internal - external price difference, the increase in domestic exports weakened the inventory accumulation expectation. The LME squeeze problem was alleviated, with inventory in Asian warehouses increasing and the premium declining. - During the tariff game, the macro - expectation may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the tariff expectation game around July 9th, especially the investigation of copper 232. The copper price showed a pull - back on the weekly chart, and the strategy of selling near - month CALL and buying far - month PUT should be continued [4][85]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In June, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, unchanged from the previous month. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose 0.7% to 49%, while France's dropped 2% to 47.8%. The US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52%, unchanged from the previous month. In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, staying below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New orders and new export orders improved slightly, and the service industry PMI gradually stabilized [12]. - The US economic "hard data" was resilient, reducing the probability of the Fed's action in July. The tariff game with the July 9th deadline set by the US led to pressure on the macro - sentiment. In China, the manufacturing data rebounded slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, and the "anti - involution" action was gradually put on the agenda [4][13][85]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In 2024, the global copper mine production was 2283.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%, with a market surplus of 301,000 tons. In 2025, from January to April, the cumulative production of copper mines was 752.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%, and in April, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 252.2 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 2811.4 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In May 2025, the import of copper concentrate was about 240 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the monthly average import from January to May 2025 [27]. TC - On July 4th, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 44.25 dollars per dry ton, an increase of 0.56 dollars per dry ton from the previous period. The CSPT group will hold a meeting on July 11th. The SMM nine - port copper concentrate inventory on July 4th was 666,200 physical tons, an increase of 42,700 physical tons from the previous period, mainly from Qinzhou Port. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate in 2025 was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. Refined Copper Production - In June 2025, the SMM China electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.3%, and increased by 12.93% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative production increased by 674,700 tons, an increase of 11.40%. It is expected that in July, the national electrolytic copper production will further increase by 155,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37%, and by 1.222 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.88% [37]. Refined Copper Import Volume - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, the export was 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In May 2025, the import of electrolytic copper was 292,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In May 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 185,200 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 962,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.98% [47]. Refined - Scrap Price Difference - The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased, and the average price difference between refined and scrap copper rods widened. The supply of recycled copper raw materials tightened, and the demand was suppressed by policies and costs. Recycled copper rod enterprises faced losses and were expected to shift to anode plate production, and the supply of anode plates in the second half of the year would be relatively loose [51]. Consumption End - Power and Grid Investment: From January to December 2024, the cumulative power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative power investment was 257.782 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.39%, and the grid investment was 203.986 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [52]. - Wire and Cable: No specific data provided. - Air Conditioning: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioning production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioning production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to May 2025, the air - conditioning production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The industry entered the off - season [56]. - Automobile: In May 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. In the new - energy vehicle sector, in May 2025, the production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%. From January to May 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% [61]. - Real Estate: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real - estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new - construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year [63]. Other Elements Inventory - As of July 4th, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 400,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,700 tons. The LME copper inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 95,300 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 3,039 tons to 84,600 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 11,600 tons to 221,000 tons. As of July 3rd, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 72,900 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous week. Due to the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, the import loss of domestic copper widened, and some smelters began to plan export business [68]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 24th, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 29,433 lots, a monthly increase of 6,852 lots. The non - commercial long position was 70,781 lots, a monthly increase of 837 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 41,348 lots, a monthly decrease of 6,015 lots. The COMEX copper price rose due to the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, and the long position increased slightly [70]. Premium - As of July 4th, the LME copper spot premium was $95.35 per ton, and the LME squeeze problem was alleviated. The domestic copper spot premium showed a trend of rising first and then falling. It is expected that under the pressure of high copper prices and increasing inventory, the spot premium will continue to be suppressed, but the decline space is limited [76]. Basis - As of July 4th, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 790 yuan per ton [81].