冠通每日交易策略-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of the domestic futures market on July 7, 2025, was more declines than increases. The prices of various commodities were affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical risks. Different commodities had different trends and outlooks, including high - level oscillations, low - level oscillations, and trends of being strong or weak [7]. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium closed flat after opening lower and rising higher. The average price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium was 62,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 60,950 yuan/ton, both up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply was relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.8%, slightly down from last week. The price of spodumene concentrate was 660 yuan/ton, up 30 dollars/ton week - on - week. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the inventory remained high. The market was affected by the idea of capacity clearance, increasing the expectation of tight supply. The tariff exemption period ended on the 9th, and there might be variables in tariffs. The market was in high - level consolidation and mainly showed a strong trend [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and fell during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 745 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. In May, the import volume of coal decreased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remained at a low level this year. Domestic coal production increased this period. The inventory of ports and independent coking enterprises increased significantly, and the supply was still loose. The steel mill's demand was still rigid, but the coke price was lowered four times, and the terminal's operating rate was low in high - temperature and rainy weather. The coking coal market was expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside was limited [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened lower, fluctuated, and closed down. The overseas macro - environment was mainly about the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the subsequent tariff situation after the expiration of the US tariff exemption period. The employment data was better than expected, increasing the market's wait - and - see attitude towards the Fed's interest - rate cut. The tariff exemption period expired this week. The supply tightness expectation was slightly improved, but the copper inventory in other regions continued to decline. The demand was expected to enter the off - season in July, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy [9]. Crude Oil - The tension in the Middle East geopolitical situation was greatly relieved, and the market's concern about the supply interruption of crude oil was alleviated. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It was recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply was increasing, with the production expected to reach 2.542 million tons in July, a 6.0% increase from the previous month. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The Middle East geopolitical risk was reduced, and OPEC + planned to increase production in August. It was recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt at low prices [12]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased, and the upstream propane import was restricted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the downstream recovery was slow, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The plastic's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased. The upstream ethane import was restricted, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, and it was expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC's supply was decreasing, and the downstream demand was still weak. The export was restricted by policies, and the inventory was high. The real - estate market improvement needed time. It was expected to oscillate at a low level, and it was recommended to short at high prices [17]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean supply was still in surplus, and the domestic soybean import and oil - mill operating rate were high. The soybean meal inventory was accumulating, and the market was affected by multiple factors. It was expected to oscillate weakly [18][19]. Soybean Oil - The international soybean oil demand was expected to increase, but the price rebound was restricted by weather and export sales. The domestic soybean - oil supply was abundant, and the inventory was rising. The terminal demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the EPA's hearing on biofuel blending targets [20]. Rebar - The rebar's supply pressure was not substantially relieved, and the demand was affected by high - temperature and rainy weather. The inventory was expected to accumulate, and the cost support was weakening. It was expected to oscillate downward, and it was recommended to short in bands [21][22]. Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil's supply was increasing, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory was accumulating, and the policy implementation was slow. It was expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [23][25]. Urea - The urea's supply was expected to increase this week, and the demand was weak both in industry and agriculture. The inventory was decreasing, and the export supported the price. It was expected to oscillate strongly [26].