碳酸锂周报20250707：多空博弈加剧，锂价震荡运行-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,100 tons week - on - week. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans a 2 - month shutdown for maintenance, expected to affect monthly output by about 1,000 tons. In May, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China were 9,700 tons, a significant 38% decrease month - on - month. China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,510 tons to 138,300 tons week - on - week, and overall inventory remains high. In the medium - to - long - term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still large [5]. - Demand side: In July, downstream production scheduling increased slightly month - on - month. Power production scheduling declined, and there was some rush - to - export behavior in energy - storage cells. The terminal market maintained a rapid growth rate, with the preliminary forecast of 1.017 million new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales in China, a 25% year - on - year increase [5]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 6.0% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week - on - week. Overseas mines have a strong price - holding sentiment, and the purchasing enthusiasm of non - integrated lithium salt plants has increased [5]. - Strategy: The improvement of macro - sentiment and the reduction of warehouse receipts drive buying, but the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. The meeting mentioned "anti - involution competition", which stimulates the market's buying sentiment. It is necessary to observe the implementation of policies. In the short term, the sentiment may still have some support, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - 5 - month lithium spodumene imports decreased slightly month - on - month: From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In May, imports were 605,000 tons, a 2.9% decrease month - on - month. Imports from Australia and South Africa increased, while those from Zimbabwe decreased [9]. - Lithium concentrate prices stabilized and rebounded: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 6.0% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week - on - week. Overseas mines have a strong price - holding sentiment, and non - integrated lithium salt plants have higher purchasing enthusiasm [12]. - June domestic lithium carbonate production increased slightly month - on - month: In June, SMM's total lithium carbonate production increased by 8% month - on - month and 18% year - on - year. Production from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes increased, while that from the recycling end decreased [16]. - June Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China remained low: From January to May, China imported 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 15.3% year - on - year increase. In June, Chile exported 10,200 tons to China, a 41% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month increase [20]. - Spot prices stabilized and rebounded: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 yuan/ton, a 1.9% week - on - week increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rebounded [21]. Demand Side - Global new - energy vehicle market started well: From January to April, global new - energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million, a 25.5% year - on - year increase. In China, from January to May, new - energy vehicle sales were 5.605 million, a 44.0% year - on - year increase [29][32]. - Power battery production maintained a high growth rate: In May, China's total production of power and other batteries was 123.5 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month and 47.9% year - on - year increase [36]. - Domestic mobile phone shipments increased slightly year - on - year: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [41]. - In May, some provinces had a "rush - to - install" trend: From January to May, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new - energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with power and capacity increasing by 110% and 112.94% year - on - year respectively [45]. - July downstream production scheduling increased slightly month - on - month: Power production scheduling declined, and there was some rush - to - export behavior in energy - storage cells [51]. Other Indicators - Non - integrated lithium salt plants had cost inversion: The theoretical production cost of manufacturers using purchased spodumene was 71,749 yuan/ton, with a negative theoretical production profit of 9,849 yuan/ton [48]. - This week, the basis narrowed: The basis of lithium carbonate was - 980, and the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices remained flat at 1,600 yuan/ton [54]. - The spread between contracts widened: The term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was horizontal, and the spread between the first - nearby and near - month contracts was - 200, 300 less than last week [57].