Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore" [1] Investment Rating - The report does not mention an industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - Last week, the policy side continued to emphasize anti - involution, and the supply - side expectations boosted market sentiment. Considering the good profit per ton of steel, raw material prices fluctuated and rebounded. From the fundamental perspective, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment this period dropped to the lowest in two and a half months, mainly due to the end of the rush of mainstream mines, with declines in both Australia and Brazil; on the demand side, the pig iron output decreased slightly this period, slightly exceeding market expectations. It is necessary to continue to monitor the pig iron output, and there is a risk of decline in the north in August. It is expected to fluctuate between 85 - 95 US dollars in the near future, and cautious operation is recommended [10] Summary by Directory Part I: Fundamentals and Conclusions Price and Inventory - Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated and rebounded, with increases ranging from 7 - 18 yuan. As of July 4, the Platts 62% index closed at $95.7, up $1.3 week - on - week, equivalent to about 799 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.16. The optimal deliverable was NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 716 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 736 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract was at a discount to the spot. The 47 - port iron ore inventory in China increased week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The total inventory of 47 ports was 14,485.9 tons, up 6 tons week - on - week, down 1,125 tons from the beginning of the year, and 1,108 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may increase slightly in the next period [7] Supply - Shipment: The total global iron ore shipment this period was 2,994.9 tons, a decrease of 362.7 tons week - on - week. The shipment of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2,417.8 tons, a decrease of 369.3 tons week - on - week. Australia's shipment was 1,764.0 tons, a decrease of 145.1 tons week - on - week, and the shipment to China was 1,415.1 tons, a decrease of 282.2 tons week - on - week. Brazil's shipment was 653.8 tons, a decrease of 224.3 tons week - on - week. - Arrival: From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,535.5 tons, an increase of 122.0 tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,483.9 tons, an increase of 120.9 tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,412.0 tons, an increase of 194.8 tons week - on - week [8] Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased this week, with an average daily output of 240.85 tons/day, a decrease of 1.44 tons/day from last week, an increase of 10.34 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 1.53 tons/day year - on - year. There were 3 new blast furnace restart and 7 blast furnace overhauls this period. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, the pig iron output may continue to decline in the next period. As of July 4, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 2,907 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 233 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 243 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China was about 3,293 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,162 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 223 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 92 yuan [9] Part II: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of July 4, the optimal deliverable was NM powder with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 736 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable was PB powder with a converted warehouse receipt of about 749 yuan/ton [15] Iron Ore Inter - period Spread - As of July 4, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 25.5 (- 1.5) [18] Premium Index - As of July 4, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1635 (+ 0.0085); the premium index of 65% pellet was 13.15 (+ 0.15) [28] Steel Mill Sintered Ore Inventory - As of July 4, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore of 64 sample steel mills was 1,230 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.02%; the inventory of domestic sintered powder ore was 8 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.41%; the inventory survey of imported ore was 19 days, unchanged from the previous week [33] 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption - As of July 4, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8,918.6 tons, an increase of 71.10 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.80%; the daily consumption of imported ore was 300.8 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.15%; the inventory - to - consumption ratio of imported ore was 29.7 days, an increase of 0.28 days from the previous week, an increase of 0.95% [36] Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels - The data shows the historical trends of port total inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers at 45 ports, Australian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), Brazilian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), and trade ore inventory at ports (45 ports) [39] Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of July 4, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1,513 tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous week, an increase of 0.65%; the inventory of imported port pellet ore was 487 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the inventory of imported port iron concentrate was 1,228 tons, an increase of 45 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.83%; the inventory of imported port coarse powder was 10,650 tons, a decrease of 107 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.00% [42] Shipment Volume - The data shows the historical shipment volume data from 2020 - 2025 [45] Iron Ore Seaborne Volume - The data shows the historical seaborne volume data of iron ore from 2022 - 2025, including the seaborne volume from Australia to China, Brazil to China, and non - mainstream countries to China [48] Iron Ore Import Volume - The data shows the historical import volume data of iron ore from 2020 - 2025, including the import volume from Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [53] Four Major Mines' Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 4, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto was 366 tons, a decrease of 191 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 34.34%; the shipment volume of BHP was 518 tons, a decrease of 37 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 6.67%; the shipment volume of Vale was 502 tons, a decrease of 144 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 22.26%; the shipment volume of FMG was 330 tons, an increase of 14 tons from the previous week, an increase of 4.39%; the total shipment volume of the four major mines was 1,716 tons, a decrease of 358 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 17.27% [71] Iron Ore Arrival Volume - As of July 4, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,484 tons, an increase of 121 tons from the previous week, an increase of 5.1%; the arrival volume at northern ports was 1,412 tons, an increase of 195 tons from the previous week, an increase of 16.0% [78] Domestic Ore Production - The data shows the historical production data of domestic ore from 2017 - 2025 [83] Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical daily average pig iron output data from 2016 - 2025, including the data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association. In 2025, compared with 2024, the daily average pig iron output increased by 1.71%, 1.71%, 3.62%, 1.32%, - 2.65% respectively [90] Global Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical pig iron output data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 - 2025 [93] Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical pig iron output data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025 [98]
铁水产量下降，区间震荡运行
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-07 11:34