中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has strengthened, and the short - term trend is bullish. The iron ore fundamentals have weakened, suggesting short - term range trading and medium - term short positions. Coke and coking coal are expected to trade in a range. Ferroalloys' market sentiment is cooling, and prices will move within a range [3][7][10][14][18] Summaries by Variety Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rebar: De - capacity and anti - involution drive the black series up, with strengthened market sentiment. The fundamentals change little, with high steel mill profitability, high hot metal production, rising rebar output, stable apparent demand, good overall steel export demand, and limited supply - demand contradictions. With basis repair and improved expectations, the short - term trend is bullish, with a price range of [3060, 3100] [1][4][5] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Output rises slightly, apparent demand drops slightly month - on - month, and inventory changes little. Supply - demand is generally balanced, export demand remains, and contradictions are limited. The upward movement is mainly driven by improved sentiment, and the short - term performance may be bullish, with a price range of [3190, 3230] [1] Iron Ore - The demand side shows a decline in hot metal production, which is expected to decline slowly later. The supply side sees the end of shipping volume surges but an increase in arrivals. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are making rigid - demand restocking. The overall supply - demand structure weakens month - on - month. Short - term range trading is recommended, and medium - term short positions should be laid out, with a price range of [720, 750] [1][8][9] Coke - Independent coking enterprise output has declined recently, but steel mill and coking enterprise output remains high. Total inventory drops month - on - month, but the absolute level is high. Hot metal production rises month - on - month, ensuring raw material demand. Supply - demand changes little. Short - term market sentiment improves, but there is moving - average resistance above, and it may return to a range - bound pattern, with a price range of [1420, 1455] [1][12][13] Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal output drops slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines resume production in July, and later supply tends to increase. The upstream inventory absolute level is still high, spot trading improves, market sentiment generally improves, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 60 - day moving average, with a price range of [830, 860] [1][16][17] Ferroalloys (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) - Silicomanganese: Last week, the fundamentals saw both supply and demand increase, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the cost - side ore price has strong bottom support. Although hot metal production is running at a high level, actual demand may decline under pressure due to the arrival of the off - season. Market sentiment is gradually cooling, and it will be under pressure before the fundamentals improve significantly, with a price range of [5550 - 5750] [1][19][20] - Ferrosilicon: The fundamentals see both supply and demand increase, and the cost side provides weak support for prices. As July - August is the peak coal consumption season, prices are expected to recover driven by costs. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories have plans to resume production later, and the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de - stocking. Market sentiment is gradually cooling, and real - world pressure will suppress the rebound height, with a price range of [5270 - 5460] [1][19][20]