A股流动性与风格跟踪月报：偏大盘风格为主，成长价值或相对均衡-20250707

Market Style Outlook - The market style in July is expected to be predominantly large-cap, with growth and value styles being relatively balanced. Historical data shows that in the past decade, July has seen a relatively balanced market style, with large-cap slightly favored [2][12][13] - External liquidity factors, including upcoming inflation and employment data from the US, may influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, potentially causing short-term market disturbances [2][21][24] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the importance of utilizing existing policies and implementing new measures to enhance market liquidity, which is expected to remain relatively loose [2][26][27] Liquidity and Capital Supply-Demand - In July, incremental capital is anticipated to flow in moderately, with financing funds likely to continue net inflows. The PBOC has shown a strong willingness to maintain liquidity, and the overall funding environment is expected to remain loose [3][30][32] - The private equity fund market has expanded significantly, with the total management scale reaching 5.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. This growth is attributed to a notable profit effect, attracting high-net-worth individuals to invest [30][31] Market Sentiment and Capital Preference - Market sentiment improved in June, with major indices showing increased trading volume and turnover rates. The valuation and trading concentration of large-cap growth and the CSI 300 index are at relatively low historical levels [4][39] - The performance of various sectors in June was influenced by geopolitical tensions, with industries such as oil and petrochemicals, precious metals, and military-related sectors seeing significant gains [4][39][40] Major Asset Performance Review - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with US and European markets outperforming A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. The A-share market showed a "N" shaped recovery in June, with growth styles leading the performance [36][39] - In the commodity market, silver prices surged significantly, while industrial metals also saw widespread price increases due to favorable developments in trade negotiations and low inventory levels [36][39] Key Events and Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the July Politburo meeting and the deadline for the "reciprocal tariffs" negotiations, which could impact market expectations and economic stability [45][48]