【早间看点】MPOA马棕6月产量预估减少4.69% Safras巴西24/25年大豆已销售69.8%-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market data for commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, and soybeans, along with important fundamental information including weather forecasts, production estimates, and trade data. It also covers macro - economic news both internationally and domestically, as well as details on capital flows and potential arbitrage opportunities in the futures market [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 09 was 4062.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.76% and an overnight increase of 1%. Brent 09 (ICE) closed at 68.51, down 0.49% the previous day and up 0.26% overnight. NYMEX WTI 08 closed at 66.50, down 1.01% the previous day and up 0.09% overnight [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8660, 8540, and 8460 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 220, 100, and 20, and no change in basis compared to the previous day. For DCE soybean oil 2509, spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8120, 8150, 8170, and 8090 respectively, with varying basis values and basis changes [2]. Important Fundamental Information 产区 Weather - US soybean - producing states will have temperatures near to above normal and mostly higher precipitation from July 9 - 13. The US Midwest will have local to scattered showers this week, with temperatures near to above normal [4][6]. International Supply and Demand - MPOA estimates a 4.69% reduction in Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicts a 3% - 7% reduction in Malaysian palm oil production by June 30. As of July 1, 2025, the barge rate on the Mississippi River increased by 2%. Brazil has sold 69.8% of its 2024/25 soybeans and 16.4% of its 2025/26 soybeans. Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June [8][9]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On July 4, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 75% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 6.34 tons, a decrease of 10.25 tons from the previous day. The oil - mill operation rate on July 4 was 66.16%, up 1.68% from the previous day [12]. Macro - economic News International News - US President Trump signed a tax and spending bill on July 4. He plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% - 20% and 60% - 70% on different countries starting August 1. OPEC + will hold a virtual meeting on July 5 to decide on production policy, with an expected 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in August [15][16]. Domestic News - On July 4, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1535, up 12 points. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan. China's futures market showed significant year - on - year growth in trading volume and turnover in June [17]. Capital Flows - On July 4, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 21.144 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 2.835 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net capital inflow of 23.979 billion yuan [21]. Arbitrage Tracking - The report shows potential arbitrage opportunities for oil and oil - seed related varieties, such as P 2509 - 2601, Y 2509 - 2601, etc [23].