大宗商品周度报告：流动性和需求均承压，商品短期或震荡偏弱运行-20250707

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand, but in the short - term, the market's previously optimistic environment continues, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] - Precious metals maintain a strong and volatile pattern and continue the upward trend; non - ferrous metals maintain a mild increase; black commodities rise; energy prices follow the external market to rise; chemicals rise slightly; agricultural products rise gently [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 0.79%. Black and precious metals had relatively large increases of 1.79% and 1.25% respectively, while agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemicals rose by 0.54%, 0.36%, and 0.18% respectively [1][5] - Among specific varieties, the top gainers were rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore with increases of 2.57%, 2.56%, and 2.23% respectively, and the top losers were soda ash, LPG, and PTA with decreases of 1.84%, 1.74%, and 1.42% respectively [1] - The funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][6] 2. Outlook - The market focused on the passage of the US fiscal bill, tariff issues, and the signals of China - EU cooperation. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] 3. Sub - sectors Analysis Precious Metals - Gold is supported by factors such as the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Global central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves strengthens its asset - allocation value. Silver is driven by gold but has weaker elasticity due to its industrial attributes [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The market is boosted by the improvement of macro - expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. Copper, aluminum and other contracts rise slightly, but the rebound is limited by the short - term fundamentals [2] Black Commodities - Rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore and other varieties rise, driven by the improvement of downstream construction, the increase in steel出库 data, and the expectation of infrastructure and real - estate policies in the third quarter. Iron ore is also supported by the decline in port inventory [2] Energy - Crude oil prices rise following the external market, driven by OPEC+ production - cut policies and the increase in US summer travel demand. Domestic crude oil futures and related products also rise, although high inventory still has some suppression [3] Chemicals - The overall chemical market rises slightly. Products like plastics and PP rebound mildly, and PTA and ethylene glycol rise due to upstream cost support. However, the slow recovery of downstream demand restricts the upward momentum [3] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product sector rises gently. Some oil and fat varieties perform well, and the uncertainty of crop growth due to hot weather also supports the market [3] 4. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally have positive returns, with a total scale of 1,554.56 billion yuan and a 1.48% increase. The total scale of commodity ETFs is 1,615.16 billion yuan with a 1.20% increase [34]