原油、燃料油日报：OPEC+提速增产，宽松基本面持续施压油价-20250707

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The crude oil market is facing a game between accelerating supply return and weak demand recovery. OPEC+ accelerating production increase may drive the global crude oil market from destocking to a slight restocking phase, but the low OECD commercial inventory still supports the price. In the third quarter, the oil price may show a volatile downward pattern, and the fluctuation center is restricted by the trade - off between OPEC+'s actual production increase execution rate and the northern hemisphere's summer refinery operating rate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4 - 5, the SC crude oil main contract price fell 1.03% to 503.5 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $67.18 and $68.85 per barrel respectively. The cross - regional spreads of SC with Brent and WTI narrowed, and the near - far month spread (SC continuous - continuous 3) also narrowed, indicating a marginal relief of the market's expectation of tight future supply [2]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, accelerating production increase. Since April, the released production will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, significantly faster than the original plan. Saudi Arabia's official price premium strategies for August are differentiated, suggesting its intention to maintain regional supply balance through structural pricing [3]. - On the demand side, there are signs of marginal repair. The recovery of fuel supply at the UK's Lindsey refinery and India's plan to expand refinery capacity have improved short - term refinery demand, but the significant reduction in Brent crude oil speculative net long positions reflects doubts about the continuous upward space of oil prices [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: On July 4, 2025, SC futures price decreased by 0.55%, WTI decreased by 1.01%, and Brent decreased by 0.49%. Among spot prices, Oman, Victory, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri increased, while others had different degrees of decline. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI changed, and the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread decreased by 12.36%. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.93%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% [6]. - Fuel Oil: On July 4, 2025, FU futures price decreased by 0.70%, LU decreased by 0.06%, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.75%. Among spot prices, some increased and some decreased. The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 1.86%, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 2.99%. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 3.91% [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and some members' over - production has caused disputes. Saudi Aramco's move to sell power plant assets may indicate financial pressure [3][8]. - Demand: The UK's Lindsey refinery resumed fuel supply, and India plans to expand refinery capacity. Dubai Airlines resumed flights to Tehran, slightly alleviating geopolitical premiums [4][10]. - Inventory: The fuel oil futures warehouse receipt decreased by 10,000 tons, while the medium - sulfur crude oil and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [11]. - Market Information: Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arab light crude oil for different regions in August. The net long positions of gasoline speculators increased, while those of Brent crude oil decreased [11]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, which help to comprehensively understand the supply and demand situation of the oil market [13][15][17].