宏观中观篇：2011-2015年熊市周期与当前周期的比较

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment is better than the previous cycle. The contraction of the US manufacturing industry is offset by the growth of personal consumption, leading to a significant decline in inflation without a notable increase in unemployment. With the Fed's good expectation management, the current economic cycle has the conditions for a "soft landing", and the liquidity release caused by preventive interest rate cuts is beneficial to commodities. In Europe, the "free - market logic" is more clearly transmitted. When inflation falls to a controllable range, interest rate cuts will stimulate manufacturing expansion and increase in terminal consumption. The current high policy interest rate of the Eurozone central bank is a more favorable condition than in 2010 - 2015 [1][44]. - The domestic macro - environment is weaker than the previous cycle. The rapid decline of M1, the positive scissors - difference between M2 and the year - on - year growth of social financing stock, and the widening of the scissors - difference between M1 and M2 reflect the decline in social financing demand and the decrease in market risk preference. However, the appreciation of the RMB caused by overseas interest rate cuts is conducive to the implementation of domestic monetary policies. In the real estate industry, high household leverage and urbanization rates restrict the maneuvering space of the current real estate cycle. High inventory of commercial housing and insufficient potential purchasing power will lead to a deeper active de - stocking. In the manufacturing industry, changes in domestic consumption structure and the increase in potential external demand make the current manufacturing cycle more resilient. Although infrastructure funds are still increasing, they are mainly invested in new - quality productivity industries such as electricity, and the growth rate of traditional steel - consuming industries is gradually declining. China's steel exports have an obvious characteristic of trading price for volume. Although there are more trade barriers, cost advantages ensure that the export volume can still be maintained [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overseas Macro - environment Comparison 3.1.1 US: Interest Rate Cuts Lead to Liquidity Release and Commodities Benefit - In the 2010 - 2015 cycle, the US market was relatively stable with a low federal funds target rate of 0.25% from December 2008 to December 2015. Unemployment rate declined year - by - year, CPI and core CPI fluctuated within a controllable range, PMI data showed manufacturing expansion, and personal consumption expenditure was stable. In the current cycle, the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, with strong potential for interest rate cuts to release liquidity. The continuous significant decline in CPI and core CPI and the stable labor market lay the foundation for preventive interest rate cuts and a soft landing of the economy. The expected interest rate cuts will release liquidity in the money market, which is beneficial to commodities [5]. 3.1.2 Europe: Potential for Liquidity Release - Europe's "free - market logic" is more clearly transmitted due to the unified management of the euro by the European Central Bank system and the large differences in economic volume and resilience among EU member states. Previous interest rate hikes suppressed terminal demand, causing CPI and manufacturing PMI to decline. When inflation falls to a controllable range, interest rate cuts will stimulate manufacturing expansion and terminal consumption. The current high policy interest rate of the Eurozone central bank is a more favorable condition than in 2010 - 2015 [11]. 3.2 Domestic Macro - and Meso - level Comparison 3.2.1 Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy - M1 has contracted more severely in this cycle, indicating greater economic downward pressure. In terms of steel consumption potential, it may be weaker than the previous cycle as households are restricted by the real estate market and local governments are burdened with debt, while the central government still has room to increase leverage. The year - on - year growth of social financing stock has been lower than that of M2 since early 2022, and the widening scissors - difference between M1 and M2 shows a decrease in market risk preference. There is still room to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio and LPR, and the appreciation of the RMB after the Fed's interest rate cuts provides space for the implementation of domestic monetary policies [14][16][18]. 3.2.2 Real Estate Industry: Active De - stocking Continues and Downward Pressure is Greater than the Previous Cycle - The real estate industry is a pro - cyclical industry. There is a positive correlation between steel prices and real estate development investment, and M1 and commercial housing sales generally move in the same direction. In this cycle, the real estate industry has greater downward pressure. The real estate development investment and funds have been in negative growth since 2022, and the high household leverage and urbanization rates limit the maneuvering space. The inventory of commercial housing is increasing, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory through price increases. The active de - stocking behavior caused by weak supply and demand may lead to a decline in real estate - related commodity prices [20][22][24]. 3.2.3 Manufacturing Industry: Domestic and External Demands Show Resonance - The manufacturing industry is a pro - cyclical industry, and there is a positive correlation between steel prices and manufacturing investment. In the 2010 - 2015 cycle, manufacturing investment declined from 30% to 5%. In the current cycle, manufacturing investment has been stable at around 10%, supported by new energy vehicles, ships, containers, and policy incentives. The "two - new" support funds in 2025 are 300 billion yuan, twice that of 2024, which is conducive to the benign cycle of domestic demand. There is a positive correlation between China's export amount and the PMI of European and American manufacturing industries, indicating resonance between domestic and external demands. The US economy may achieve a soft landing, and there is a possibility of upward resonance of domestic and external demands, which will not drag down steel consumption [30][33]. 3.2.4 Infrastructure: New - quality Productivity Industries Gain Momentum while Traditional Steel - consuming Industries Slow Down - Infrastructure is a counter - cyclical adjustment tool, and there is an inverse correlation between infrastructure investment growth rate and steel prices. In the 2010 - 2016 period, local governments were the main entities for leveraging through urban investment bonds. After 2022, with the decline in land transfer revenue, the proportion of special bonds increased, and policy - based development tools and ultra - long - term treasury bonds can also supplement infrastructure funds. Although the total infrastructure funds are still increasing, the investment is mainly in new - quality productivity industries such as electricity, and the growth rate of traditional steel - consuming industries such as roads, railways, and public facilities is gradually declining [35][37][39]. 3.2.5 Export: Trading Price for Volume, Pattern Remains Unchanged - China's steel exports have an obvious characteristic of trading price for volume, with an inverse correlation between export quantity and price since 2007. When domestic demand is strong, exports are restricted; when domestic demand is weak, high production leads to an exploration of export paths. Since 2022, some overseas countries have imposed high tariffs or conducted anti - dumping investigations on Chinese steel products, increasing export costs and slightly reducing export volume. However, due to cost advantages, China's steel still has global appeal, and the high - volume export pattern is difficult to change. About 70% of steel exports go to Asia, and the trade pattern has been basically stable since 2010 [42][43].