大类资产运行周报（20250630-20250704）：6月新增非农超预期，美元降息预期降温-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, both global and domestic major asset classes including stocks, bonds, and commodities closed higher. Globally, stocks outperformed commodities, which in turn outperformed bonds when measured in US dollars. Domestically, the same pattern of stocks > commodities > bonds was observed. Attention should be paid to whether the US tariff policy will be upgraded as President Trump's latest remarks on tariffs may impact major asset prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities Closed Higher Weekly - The number of new non - farm jobs added in the US in June was higher than expected. On July 4, local time, Trump signed the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill. The US dollar index continued to decline weekly, while stocks, bonds, and commodities closed higher. Overall, in US dollar terms, stocks > commodities > bonds [3][6]. 3.2 Global Stock Market Overview: US Stocks Led the Gains - From June 30 to July 4, market sentiment was relatively positive, but the performance of global major stock markets was divergent. Geographically, US stocks led the gains, while the Asia - Pacific region underperformed. Emerging markets performed worse than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated at a low level weekly [8]. 3.3 Global Bond Market Overview: The Yield of 10 - Year US Treasury Bonds Rose Weekly - Better - than - expected non - farm data cooled the market's expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut. The yields of medium - and long - term US Treasury bonds increased. The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 6BP to 4.35% weekly. The bond market rose weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [15]. 3.4 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview: The US Dollar Index Declined Weekly - From June 30 to July 4, although recent US economic and employment data remained resilient, the US dollar index still declined slightly weekly. Most major non - US currencies appreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate closed slightly higher. The US dollar index fell 0.28% weekly [16]. 3.5 Global Commodity Market Overview: International Oil and Gold Prices Closed Higher Weekly - The expectation of traditional peak - season consumption supported the rebound of international oil prices. Due to the high uncertainty in the global economic operation, international gold prices also rebounded. Most major agricultural products rose, while non - ferrous metal prices showed mixed performance [18]. 3.6 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities All Closed Higher - From June 30 to July 4, the China Manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The China Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index in June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4%, consistent with the trend of the official manufacturing PMI. The Caixin China Services PMI in June was 50.6%. Stocks, bonds, and commodities closed higher weekly. Overall, stocks > commodities > bonds [19]. 3.7 Domestic Stock Market Overview: Most Major Broad - Based A - Share Indexes Rose - The expectation of "anti - involution" in industries increased. Most major broad - based A - share indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips performed prominently. In terms of sectors, steel and banks led the gains, while the comprehensive finance sector underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.40% weekly [20]. 3.8 Domestic Bond Market Overview: The Bond Market Ran Strongly - From June 30 to July 4, the central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. The overall liquidity remained stable. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [22]. 3.9 Domestic Commodity Market Overview: The Commodity Market Rebounded - The domestic commodity market closed higher weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the black sector led the gains [23]. 3.10 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to Whether the US Tariff Policy Will Be Upgraded - Overall, President Trump's latest remarks on tariffs may have an impact on major asset prices. Attention should be paid to the outcome of the US tariff negotiations [27].