华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20250707

Report Overview - Report Title: [Huabao Futures] Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Overall: The market conditions of various varieties in the black industry chain are complex. There are opportunities for price rebounds in some varieties, but there are also risks affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and seasons. It is recommended to operate with caution and pay attention to relevant influencing factors [9][10][11] - Specific Varieties: - 成材: Recommend a strategy of shorting on rebounds [9] - Coal and Coke: The price volatility intensifies, and the supply - demand pressure of coking coal eases slightly [10] - Ferroalloys: The supply - demand pattern tends to be loose, and prices are expected to follow the black market trend without more independent market trends [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 周度行情回顾 - Futures and Spot Prices: From June 27 to July 4, 2025, the prices of most varieties in the black industry chain showed an upward trend. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 increased from 2995 to 3072, with a rise of 2.57%, and the spot price increased by 2.92%. However, the prices of some varieties such as coking coal and ferrosilicon decreased slightly [7] 3.2 02 本周黑色行情预判 - 成材 - Logic: Last week, the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces decreased, and the daily output of molten iron decreased. The steel price rebounded due to the anti - involution storm and production restrictions in some steel mills in Tangshan. However, it is currently the off - season of demand, and factors such as high temperature and rainfall may affect the height of the rebound [9] - View: Short on rebounds [9] - Later Concerns: Macroeconomic policies and downstream demand [9] - Coal and Coke - Logic: After the end of the safety production month and the inspection, some coal mines resumed production, which cooled the bullish sentiment. The anti - involution and capacity - reduction policies also disturbed the market sentiment, and the price volatility intensified [10] - View: The market sentiment is volatile recently, the supply - demand pressure of coking coal eases slightly, and the prices of coal and coke fluctuate more violently [10] - Later Concerns: Coal production data, the sustainability of high daily output of molten iron in steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [10] - Ferroalloys - Logic: The central government's policy to regulate low - price competition in enterprises affected the market. On the supply side, the production and operating rates of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased; on the demand side, the demand increased slightly last week but may weaken in the future; on the inventory side, silicon - manganese inventory accumulated slightly, and ferrosilicon inventory decreased slightly; on the cost side, the cost support of silicon - manganese increased, and that of ferrosilicon was stable [11] - View: The macro - environment has warmed up, and the supply - demand pattern of ferroalloys tends to be loose. Prices are expected to follow the black market trend. Pay attention to supply - side disturbances and environmental protection requirements [11] - Later Concerns: Tariff policy evolution, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [11] 3.3 03 品种数据 3.3.1 成材 - Rebar - Production and Apparent Demand: Last week, the production was 221.08 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.24 million tons; the apparent demand was 224.87 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.96 million tons [13] - Inventory: The total inventory was 545.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.79 million tons [20] - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for the 10 - month contract was 98 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton [34] - Hot - Rolled Coil - Production and Apparent Demand: Last week, the production was 328.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 million tons; the apparent demand was 324.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 million tons [26] - Inventory: The total inventory was 344.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.77 million tons [31] - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for the 10 - month contract was 49 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [41] 3.3.2 煤焦 - Coke - Inventory: The total inventory was 930.72 million tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.17 million tons [49] - Profit and Production: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 52 yuan last week, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan; the daily output was 64.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons [64] - Basis: The basis for the 1 - month contract of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke was - 193 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton [71] - Coking Coal - Inventory: The total inventory was 2566.65 million tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11 million tons [56] - Production: The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 73.9 million tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million tons [65] - Basis: The basis for the 1 - month contract of Meng 5 clean coal was - 96 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan/ton [74] 3.3.3 铁合金 - Spot Price: The price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased by 0.5 yuan/dry ton degree week - on - week; the spot price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia remained flat week - on - week; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [80] - Inventory: The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese sample enterprises was 22.23 million tons on July 4, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 million tons; the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.244 million tons [11] - Production and Demand: The production of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased week - on - week; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon of the five major steel varieties increased by 0.72% and 0.63% respectively week - on - week [11]