山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict eases, but risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remain; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's signature tax - cut bill has passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US. - In terms of the monetary attribute, overall US employment growth is stronger than expected, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The market now expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.64%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.50%. [1] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - Data Details: - Prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $3336/oz, up 1.52% from last week; London gold at $3331.9/oz, up 1.84%. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 771.3 yuan/g, down 0.74% from the previous day but up 0.48% from last week. [2] - Positions: Comex gold positions decreased by 1.42% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 12.80%, and gold TD positions increased by 2.22%. [2] - Inventory: LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.32%. [2] Silver - Price Anchor: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. [5] - Fund and Inventory Situation: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced their positions again, and the visible silver inventory increased slightly recently. [5] - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. [6] - Data Details: - Prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $37.04/oz, up 2.42% from last week; London silver at $36.89/oz, up 2.52%. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8944 yuan/kg, up 2.25% from the previous day and 1.68% from last week. [6] - Positions: Comex silver positions remained unchanged; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 16.45% from the previous day but decreased by 12.60% from last week, and silver TD positions increased by 3.27%. [6] - Inventory: The total visible silver inventory increased by 0.12% from last week. [6] Key Fundamental Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased by $30.94 billion, a decrease of 0.00%. [8] - Economic Data: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 1.9%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points; non - farm employment increased by 147,000. [11] - Inflation Data: CPI year - on - year was 4.50%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; core PCE price index year - on - year was 2.68%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points. [8][11] - Other Data: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged; the VIX index decreased by 0.18% from the previous day; the CRB commodity index increased by 1.57% from the previous day. [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's future interest rate adjustments. [13]