贵金属周报：非农高于预期，金价承压-20250707

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold returned to the $3350 mark, and Shanghai gold rose above 775 yuan. The expectation of US tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the gold price. However, the better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data reduced the expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the probability of three rate cuts this year decreased significantly, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price is expected to remain under pressure. [3][29] - In the medium to long term, since the relaxation of US tariff policies, market risk appetite has increased, and the gold price has declined significantly. Technically, the 60 - day moving average can be used as a reference for long - term upward movement. After breaking below it, the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions may increase. The gold price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken. [3][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Weekly Trend: The report mentions the linkage between the US dollar index and gold price but does not elaborate on the specific weekly trend [7]. - Indicator Changes: From June 27th to July 3rd, COMEX gold increased by 1.52%, COMEX silver by 2.42%, SHFE gold主力 by 1.94%, and SHFE silver主力 by 1.73%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.15%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.04%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.02, the S&P 500 increased by 1.72%, and the US crude oil continuous increased by 3.24%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.88%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.21%. SPDR gold ETF decreased by 7.16, and iShare gold ETF increased by 0.32 [8]. 3.2 Non - farm Payrolls Higher than Expected, Gold Price Under Pressure - In the first half of the week, the expectation of tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, and the gold price oscillated upwards. In the second half of the week, the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data supported the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the US dollar index rebounded, and the gold price was under pressure. The high market risk preference last week, with the non - farm payrolls data having little impact on it, also put pressure on the gold price as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs [10][13]. 3.3 Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long non - commercial positions on COMEX have continued to rise. As of June 24th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,509 contracts, short positions increased by 1,135 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16]. - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to climb. In early June, silver prices rose significantly, and the corresponding ETFs increased their positions significantly, with both price and volume rising. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, market attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to remain strong [18]. - Since late April, the gold price has risen and then fallen, and the gold - silver ratio has also declined from a high level. Silver has benefited from its precious metal attribute and short - term catch - up growth. After breaking through the one - year oscillation high, short - term market attention has increased, and it has strong upward momentum. The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [22]. - Since late June, the yield spread has continued to strengthen, mainly due to the significant decline in the near - end yield caused by expected interest rate cuts. Usually, the near - end US Treasury yield depends on the benchmark interest rate, while the long - end is more related to long - term economic conditions [24]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the gold price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term and maintain a weak trend in the medium to long term, while the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken [29].