2022年债市展望：资金面充盈宽松，债市收益率走势有所分化，中短端延续下行，长端小幅上行

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On July 4, the liquidity was abundant and loose. The yields of the bond market showed a divergent trend, with the medium - and short - end yields continuing to decline and the long - end yields rising slightly. The convertible bond market also showed divergence following the equity market, and most convertible bond issues declined. The 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies also showed a divergent trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - Domestic News: Minister of Finance Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members. The central bank solicited public opinions on the revised business rules of the RMB Cross - border Payment System. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised the ETF risk management business guidelines, which will take effect on August 1, 2025 [3][4]. - International News: Elon Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party" on July 5, aiming to "avoid US bankruptcy" and indicating participation in the 2026 mid - term elections. This marked the breakdown of his political alliance with Trump [6]. - Commodities: On July 4, Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 0.72% to $68.30 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.24%. Spot gold rose 0.33% to $3337.15 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.92%. NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.53% to $3.387 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Liquidity - Open Market Operations: On July 4, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 491.9 billion yuan [9][10]. - Funding Rates: On July 4, the liquidity was abundant and loose, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 0.10bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 4.52bp to 1.422%. Various inter - bank lending and repurchase rates also showed downward trends [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - Interest - Rate Bonds: - Yield Trends: On July 4, the trends of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds diverged. The medium - and short - end yields continued to decline due to loose liquidity, while the long - end yields rose slightly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. For example, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.15bp to 1.6410% [14]. - Bond Tenders: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25进出清发02, 25附息国债07(续2), and 25附息国债11(续2) was provided, including issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples [16]. - Credit Bonds: - Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies: On July 4, the transaction prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "H1碧地01" falling more than 66% and "H0中骏02" falling more than 19% [16]. - Credit Bond Events: Companies such as Sunac China, Fantasia Holdings, Vanke, and Yida China announced matters related to share issuance, debt restructuring, guarantee balances, and loan defaults [17]. - Convertible Bonds: - Equity and Convertible Bond Indices: On July 4, the three major A - share indices showed different trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.32%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling 0.25% and 0.36% respectively. The convertible bond market also showed divergence, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rising 0.15% and 0.24% respectively, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.01%. Most convertible bond issues declined [18]. - Convertible Bond Tracking: Some convertible bonds such as Jingao Convertible Bond proposed to lower the conversion price, and some such as Jingduan Convertible Bond announced early redemptions [24]. - Overseas Bond Markets: - US Bond Market: The US bond market was closed on July 4 due to the Independence Day holiday [21]. - European Bond Market: On July 4, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed a divergent trend. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield dropped 1bp to 2.57%, France's rose 1bp, and those of Italy and the UK remained unchanged, while Spain's dropped 1bp [22]. - Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds: The daily price changes of some Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of July 4 were provided, including information on credit entities, bond codes, bond balances, and yields [25].