Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Copper: Today, Shanghai copper continued to decline with reduced positions, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 mark. The commodity market sentiment has been cold since last Friday, with widespread declines in non - ferrous and black metals. On the industrial side, as copper prices rise, downstream buyers are more willing to wait and see, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased significantly on Monday. In the short term, due to macro - cooling and reduced industrial purchasing willingness, long - positions are being liquidated. Attention should be paid to the support at the 79,000 level [5]. - Aluminum: Today, Shanghai aluminum declined significantly with reduced positions, and the main contract price dropped to the 20,400 level. The commodity market sentiment has been cold since last Friday, with widespread declines in non - ferrous and black metals. On the industrial side, the downstream has entered the off - season and is afraid of high prices, resulting in a slowdown in the destocking of Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory. Technically, the futures price faces some pressure at the June high [6]. - Nickel: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel dropped to the 120,000 level, with a slight increase in open interest. The commodity market sentiment has been cold since last Friday, with widespread declines in non - ferrous and black metals. Fundamentally, in the short term, the upstream mines in Indonesia and the Philippines are strong, and the downstream stainless steel has also rebounded with the improvement of the domestic macro - economy, providing short - term support to the futures price. In the long - term, the oversupply of nickel elements limits the upside space of nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 level [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Copper: On July 7, Mysteel reported that the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 147,500 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared to the 30th and an increase of 18,100 tons compared to the 3rd [9]. - Aluminum: On July 7, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 465,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the 3rd and an increase of 3,000 tons compared to the 30th [9]. - Nickel: On July 7, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,050 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,110 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,560 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,810 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,160 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [11][13][14] - Aluminum: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, etc. [24][26][28] - Nickel: The report includes charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [37][40][43]
宝城期货有色日报-20250707
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-07 14:07