正信期货鸡蛋周报2025-7-7：鸡蛋反套为主-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating - The weekly rating for the egg industry is neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the de - capacity of laying hens is insufficient, and the egg - laying rate won't decline rapidly before entering the dog days. The Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is still early. The main sales area's sales decreased slightly this week, and the inventory in both production and circulation links fluctuated slightly. The stocking may be postponed due to the late Mid - Autumn Festival and slow de - capacity. The breeding profit continues to decline, and the egg basis decreased slightly this week. The near - far spread of egg futures is at a medium level, and the net short position of institutional investors in the main contract decreased but with high volatility. In the context of low overall commodity valuations and short - sellers leaving, macro funds may allocate more to domestic varieties. The pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength in egg futures is expected to continue, and 9 - 11, 9 - 12 reverse spreads can be considered [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - It includes analysis of spot prices (comparison between main production area and main sales area prices), egg basis (for each futures contract), egg spreads (among different futures contracts), and futures institutional net positions (such as the long - short difference and ratio of the August contract) [3][6][9][12] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects like laying hen inventory and its structure, chicken culling (price and average culling age), replenishment (price of commercial laying hen chicks and hatching egg utilization rate), and the situation of large and small - sized eggs (price and seasonal spread) [15][17][20][22] Demand Analysis - Focuses on the shipment volume and sales volume (in main production and sales areas), inventory (in production and circulation links), and substitutes (price ratios with pork and vegetables) [25][28][31] Profit Analysis - Analyzes breeding profit (current and expected) and the egg - feed price ratio (including the balance point and seasonal chart) [34][35]