Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX prices may continue to face pressure in the short term due to weak international oil prices leading to insufficient cost support, and the futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [2] - The downside space of PTA is limited. It may show a narrow - range fluctuation pattern under the game between cost and demand, with upstream PX weakening suppressing costs and downstream demand showing marginal improvement [2] - The polyester industry chain may present a weak reality pattern in the next two weeks. Cost - side downward pressure may be transmitted to the PTA link, but attention should be paid to the demand - side improvement's impact on inventory digestion and the potential start time of restocking [3] - Overall, PX may continue to be under pressure, while PTA may have limited decline or be in a range - bound consolidation due to demand growth [36] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On July 4, the PX main contract closed at 6,672.0 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 170.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,710.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 170.0 yuan/ton [2] - On July 4, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.85 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 67.18 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 696.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 645.33 million meters [2] Polyester - On July 4, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,514.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,710.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 196.0 yuan/ton [3] - The PX futures price showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. On July 4, it decreased by 0.98% to 6,672 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, and the PTA futures decreased by 0.77% to 4,710 yuan/ton during the same period, indicating a loosening of cost support [3] - The MA15 of the Light Textile City's trading volume continued to rise, reaching 645 million meters on July 4, hitting a new high in the observation period, showing signs of recovery in terminal textile demand [3] - All types of polyester fibers showed continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly inventory increase of DTY was 13% (28.6 days), FDY increased by 18.5% (22.4 days), and POY increased by 26% (21.7 days), all significantly higher than the five - year average level [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,672 yuan/ton, down 1.01%; the trading volume was 241,111 lots, up 8.15%; the open interest was 123,806 lots, up 11.49% [4] - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the trading volume was 1,056,898 lots, down 0.66%; the open interest was 1,114,401 lots, down 1.38% [4] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,514 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the trading volume was 107,280 lots, up 8.95%; the open interest was 82,960 lots, down 5.71% [4] - Other prices: Brent crude oil main contract was 68.51 US dollars/barrel, down 0.49%; WTI was 66.5 US dollars/barrel, down 1.01%; CFR Japan naphtha was 577.38 US dollars/ton, unchanged; ethylene glycol was 4,370 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; polyester chips were 5,875 yuan/ton, down 0.51%; polyester bottle chips were 5,980 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; polyester POY was 6,920 yuan/ton, down 3.22%; polyester DTY was 8,200 yuan/ton, down 2.61%; polyester FDY was 7,180 yuan/ton, down 3.62% [4] - Processing spreads: Naphtha was 40.64 US dollars/ton, unchanged; PX was 271.29 US dollars/ton, unchanged; PTA was 261.72 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; polyester chips were - 108 yuan/ton, down 38.46%; polyester bottle chips were - 453 yuan/ton, down 4.62%; polyester short - fiber was 107 yuan/ton, down 27.21%; polyester POY was 37 yuan/ton, down 86.14%; polyester DTY was - 33 yuan/ton, down 117.65%; polyester FDY was - 203 yuan/ton, down 402.99% [5] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total volume was 696 million meters, up 30.58%; long - fiber fabric volume was 507 million meters, up 24.88%; short - fiber fabric volume was 191 million meters, up 52.80% [5] - Industrial chain load rates: PTA factories were at 75.86%, unchanged; polyester factories were at 89.42%, unchanged; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were at 63.43%, unchanged [5] - Inventory days: Polyester short - fiber was 7.99 days, up 2.83%; polyester POY was 21.7 days, up 26.16%; polyester FDY was 22.4 days, up 18.52%; polyester DTY was 28.6 days, up 13.04% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations Macro Dynamics - On July 4, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the US economy may experience high inflation for a longer time [6] - On July 3, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Taylor thought there would be five interest rate cuts in 2025 [6] - Starting from August 1, purchases of gold in cash exceeding 100,000 yuan will need to be reported [6] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 4, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 696.0 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 30.58%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 507.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 191.0 million meters [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts including PX main futures and basis, PX spot price, PTA main futures and basis, PTA spot price, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures monthly spread, short - fiber futures monthly spread, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber production and sales situation, polyester filament production and sales situation, China Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [8][10][12]
聚酯链日报：成本松动难提供支撑，需求弱现实拖累聚酯原料盘面-20250707
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-07 14:37