玉米周报：进口玉米拍卖持续，盘面表现弱势-20250707

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - This week, corn prices continued to decline. The fundamentals of US corn remain bearish, but the export net sales met expectations, leading to a slightly stronger trend. In the domestic market, wheat prices are supported by reserve purchases, and corn spot prices are temporarily stable, but the continuous auction of imported corn has weakened the futures market. In the medium to long term, corn prices may rise first and then fall, with a supply - demand gap in the third quarter and large supply pressure in the fourth quarter [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Points - The US corn fundamentals are bearish, with the drought - affected area dropping to 12% as of July 1. The export net sales of 147,000 tons last week met expectations, and the price showed a slightly stronger trend. In the domestic market, wheat harvest is basically over, and reserve purchases support wheat prices. Corn is in the off - season, and the continuous auction of imported corn has weakened the futures market. The current feed enterprise inventory is relatively abundant, and both the breeding and processing industries are in the off - season. In the long run, corn prices may rise first and then fall [6]. Market Review - As of July 4, the CBOT09 corn closed at 421.00 cents per bushel, up 9.75 points from last week, a weekly increase of 2.37%. The C2509 corn closed at 2,353 yuan per ton, down 31 points from last week, a weekly decrease of 1.30% [8]. Fundamental Analysis - US Corn Weather: There will be sufficient rainfall and normal temperatures in the US soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks [13]. - US Corn Growth: As of the week of June 29, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 73%, higher than the expected 70%, up from 70% the previous week and 67% in the same period last year. The silking rate was 8%, up from 4% the previous week, compared with 10% last year and a five - year average of 6%. As of the week of July 1, about 12% of the US corn - growing area was affected by drought, down from 16% the previous week and 8% last year [13][21]. - US Corn Export: As of the week of June 26, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 533,000 tons, down from 741,000 tons the previous week; in the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 940,000 tons, up from 306,000 tons the previous week [13][25]. - Domestic Inventory - Feed Enterprises: As of July 3, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.96 days, down 0.63 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93% and a year - on - year increase of 1.62% [13][29]. - Domestic Inventory - Processing Enterprises: From June 26 to July 2, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1763 million tons of corn, a decrease of 12,900 tons from last week. The corn processing volume of starch enterprises was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from last week. The weekly corn starch output was 264,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from last week, and the weekly operating rate was 51.2%, an increase of 0.05% from last week. As of July 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.354 million tons, a decrease of 4.66% [13][31][35]. - Domestic Inventory - Port Inventory: As of June 27, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80,000 tons, and the shipping volume was 252,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 86,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 300,000 tons, unchanged from last week; the imported sorghum was 505,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from last week; and the imported barley was 340,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons from last week [13][37]. Spread Tracking No specific spread data analysis is provided in the given text, only the spread types such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - corn spread, corn basis, and wheat - corn spread are mentioned [39][40][41].